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William Hurst
@wjhurst
Chong Hua Professor of Chinese Development @CambridgeFames @Cambridge_Uni Co-Director @CamGeopolitics Fellow @RobinsonCamb Senior Associate Fellow @RUSI_org
Cambridge, UK
sites.google.com/prod/view/will…
Joined October 2014
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  • user avatar
    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    I've been studying various aspects of #protest & contentious #politics in #China for 25 years. What's happening now is novel, interesting, & potentially quite important. But we need to be careful about drawing conclusions or making predictions. A🧵: 1/22 @CamGeopolitics @NCUSCR
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Jul 7, 2020
    Without official action by @NorthwesternU, I will offer an in-person independent study (on any topic of their choosing) to any graduate student of @PoliSciatNU who holds an F-1 visa and needs such a class to remain legally in the United States. Please email me if you need this.
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Aug 21, 2023
    Along with most other scholars of my generation, I've been studying political #economy in #China for more than 25 years. What's happening there is not so simple as 'party's over'. For a little context and analysis, here is a brief 🧵: 1/25 #Politics @CamGeopolitics @NCUSCR
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    What's happened in the past 24 hours is novel in that protesters have appeared on the streets in multiple cities with apparent knowledge of what is happening in other parts of the country. They're all mobilising around #Covid, but this is refracted through distinct lenses. 10/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    Since 1989, we've seen 5 main strands/repertoires of contention in China: 1) labour protest 2) rural protest 3) student protest 4) urban governance protest 5) systematic political dissent Each of these has usually been disaggregated locally and separated from the others. 2/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    If things fizzle - or even if the strands/repertoires become disentangled - all will return to the somewhat uneasy quotidian of a few weeks ago. If not, this could prove a critical juncture. But not one that will be easy to read in real time or with a happy ending. 22/22 (END)
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    By taking up slogans and frames of generalised dissent, as well as at least implicitly signally solidarity with workers' and students' mobilisation, these crowds are crossing a boundary and helping merge four of the five strands/repertoires outlined above. 14/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    Finally, we've seen a few sensations incidents of generalised dissent (e.g. 四通桥), but in the past 24 hours crowds in at least one or two cities have appeared overtly calling for #XiJingping to leave office and for the #CCP to lose power. 12/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    If we look at this lacklustre response through the lens of experiences across #Indonesia & SE Asia, it might suggest the lurking presence of at least tacit elite allies. Such a factor would substantially complicate the picture. 17/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    But, if we assume no elite backers, the most likely scenario I can see is that the protests fizzle out (as most such movements do in most countries). Having erupted spontaneously in a short period, they will fade away without reaching any climax or denouement. 18/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    What is also very interesting, though, is that the state response last night was not nearly as harsh, repressive, or even coordinated as we might have predicted. 16/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    Workers in Zhengzhou and elsewhere are engaged in labour protests, but with #ZeroCovid as a kind of frame for their grievances. Students across dozens of campuses, similarly are mounting familiar kinds of protest, but also framed around Covid. 11/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    The protesters in these crowds don't look to be either workers or students. They appear to have mobilised first around #Covid & urban governance issues - in particular, in reaction to the fire and failed response in Urumqi two days ago. But they've morphed beyond that. 13/22
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    William Hurst
    @wjhurst
    Nov 27, 2022
    Replying to @wjhurst
    This is what makes the current moment especially interesting and possibly important and dangerous. But the trajectory from here is not certain. I can see at least three possible ways forward, in declining order of likelihood & increasing order of importance/danger... 15/22