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Tom Loverro
@tomloverro
Investing in startups that define industries @IVP. 15 years cancer-free. 3 kids & a minivan. @amplitude_hq @coinbase @datadoghq @github @hashicorp @nerdwallet
Menlo Park, CA
Joined February 2009
Posts
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    Crypto winter is here ❄️. I was on the @coinbase board until 2021 and led its Series D for @IVP. I’ve lived crypto cycles since 2013. Here are my predictions on how and when this crypto winter will end, and how to emerge stronger. 🧵👇/1
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    PREDICTION: There's a mass extinction event coming for early & mid-stage companies. Late '23 & '24 will make the '08 financial crisis look quaint for startups. Below I explain when, why & how it will start & offer *detailed advice to founders* on surviving the looming die-off. /1
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    “Silicon Valley gets what it deserves! Screw tech, startups and VCs!” -Sent from an iPhone via Twitter and Instagram, w an ARM processor instruction set by Marvell, code repo by GitHub, delivered via Cloudflare, while driving a Tesla Model 3 and Slack/Gmail w co-workers
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    Very few people know this.
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    My advice now is: Have enough cash to get through the next 30-36 months and, even more importantly, sufficient FAITH to survive the winter without wavering or chasing new and non-crypto directions. Crypto will come back bigger than ever.🔥 /end
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    I passed on the seed round of Honey. I’m going to bed now.
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    I, for one, welcome the possibility of TikTok On-Premises Edition, which will deliver the performance and reliability I’ve been seeking.
    BREAKING: Oracle in talks to buy TikTok’s U.S. business, the Financial Times reports trib.al/0OHD3EI
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    1 in 4!!! “Upper-class individuals are more likely to have inherited at least some of their wealth. According to a 2022 Bank of America study, only about 1 in 4 people with more than $3 million in investable assets are self-made.”
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    So this is the time to prepare and think big 💪. During bull runs you’re paying off technical debt and keeping the servers from melting. Winters are for innovating and taking market share. /7
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    The bottom will come not during this current fear & loathing phase but later, after indifference sets in, crypto is no longer making headlines, and the tourists have left 🎉. That process will take many months. /5
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    Many VC & crypto investors suffer from recency bias, expecting a quick rebound b/c that’s what happened after the 2020 Covid black swan. This bear market isn’t a black swan; it’s the result of rising interest rates. So these investors will suffer 😳 until rates stabilize. /3
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    In 2022, crypto will go even lower. 2023 will be mostly flat to down, until indifference 🥱 sets in, signaling a long-awaited spring thaw (explained below). Crypto macro will improve in the 2nd half of 2023. My reasoning: /2
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    Replying to @tomloverro
    Crypto will rebound when retail discovers novel apps & use cases, esp those enabled by innovations at the protocol & dev infra layers (⬇️ txn costs, easier to build). @IVP is excited to back the next gen of crypto innovators, as we did @coinbase @FTX_Official @Sorare @TaxBit. /9
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    The San Francisco mind cannot comprehend Chicago in the summer.