$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now.
I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT.
High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with
$BTU some quick math just to highlight how cheap $BTU is current EV $2690 @ $20. Annualize current qtr $590M in EBITDA = 1.1X. Yes you can argue current coal prices won't last a yr but you could also argue that they go stupid crazy this fall if gas gets cut off.
$ARQQ was $10 in early Nov. before the business plan pivot to an asset-light SaaS-only business model for its #quantum encryption solution integr. by $DELL$AMZN & market leader $FTNT & adopted by the US DoD & other deptarts. No reason it can't go back there.🧐
$ASTS $8.32 $ASTSW $2.65 Float 117M Short 31.6M=27% SI
CONCLUSION: Current EV of $2.15Bln grossly undervalues a business that could generate that much in adj. EBITDA in 2027E. Asymmetric risk reward with a current FV in the $15-$20 range for 100%+ return from current levels.
$ASTS: Key tenet of short thesis has collapsed. Non-dilutive funding will be coming in droves from MNO customers. This is just 2 of 50 MNOs putting $ down.
$COSM I've communic. to mgmt I think they should consider auth'ing a buyback. Some may say it’s @ odds w/ the S-3 in the mkt but I say it gives co. max flex. to deal w/ irrat. low prices. Anything bought under issue is immed. accret., anti-dilutive & further discourages shorts🧐
$COSM so not only did management and insiders participate in the $11.50 offering but they also agreed to 90 day lock-ups on those purchases. Nice. The late day run is NOT over. Added more at $8.35. 🧐
$COSM current price action levels I'm watching. Look for a $7.50 stop loss raid to size entry. $8.50 - $9 = day trader supply zone. Valid only until a press release fuels another squeeze into double digits which I expect before the week is out.🧐
$NBIS $31.38 Float 155.8M Short 2.3M = 1.5% SI
CROSSROADS CAPITAL 25 PAGE INVESTMENT THESIS SUMMARIZED
1. Valuation and Pricing:
a. Market values AI cloud business at ~3.3x ARR.
b. $3 billion in cash, $1 billion for Avride, and $500 million for other businesses.
c. BASE CASE:
$COSM so quick math on this in post-split #’s: ~13.5% of the float FTD in the next 2 days @ $8 and ~13.5% @ $10.75. Look for a push of volume above those levels this week for some fireworks. Should be big vol. Would be a great time to drop a PR to ignite the flames.🧐
$COSM 9.2% of the offering just from the CEO = impressive. We know from the PR that there was more insider particip. so likely that # is 10%+. Co. focus is now on M&A. Word on that is next. This team has shown some impressive execution. I WOULDN'T WANT TO BE SHORT.🧐
$COSM so a shareholder friendly management group buys stock @ $11.50, fully stocks up their treasury and has a slew of accretive corp. devel. opportunities with short resolution time horizons. The stock is now $4.50. What do you really think happens next? NOT BEARISH.🧐
$COSM get it while it's quiet. Sitting @ my calc of fundamental value pre $raise & reverse split of 25-26c (see prev. tweets on this level). Much stronger co. now - flush with cash. It's all about corporate development actions from here🧐
@F355Spyder_ brings up a great point on $COSm If you look at the last trading days going back to Tues there is a bullish spike between 1-2pm. Lots of FTD’s. Are they covering those? A bunch due today and LOTS to the 28th!
$COSM Multiple positive news flow items likely for the remainder of the wk including: 1)Offering close PR 2) Further 13D filings re. insider purch. per below. 3)Mgmnt now focused on co. building so possibly progress on previously announ. & new transact. WOULDN'T WANT TO BE SHORT.
$WEBR S3 shows it as its most shorted stock @ 63.7%. Reddit getting onboard now with ZERO shares avail to short. At $10 a further 10% of the float goes in the $. I fully expect a push to that level and above before the Sept 16 options expiry.🧐👀💥🚀
