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Friends:
Hein Goemans and I have a piece in Foreign Affairs explaining why negotiated peace is very unlikely because of Russia.
Branislav Slantchev
34.8K posts
Branislav Slantchev
@slantchev
Professor of Political Science at the University of California San Diego IR theory and conflict, formal modeling. All views expressed here are strictly personal
- Russia is in very deep trouble because its economy cannot sustain the war expenditures on the scale it needs to be able to advance for much longer. Even Moscow-based analysts now warn that 2025 would be dire indeed. But don't take my word for it. Here's an overview. 1/15
- An old Soviet joke. The Russians arrest a Jew for studying Hebrew. “Why are you studying Hebrew in Russia? You will die before being allowed to go to Israel.” “When I die, I will go to heaven and everyone there will speak Hebrew.” “Ha! And what if you go to hell?” “I already
- Why are people surprised that the Russian economy can't take the strain of the war? In 1968, at the height of the Vietnam War, the US spent about 25% of the federal budget and 2.5% GDP on the war. Russia is now spending about 40% of its budget and 8% of GDP on the war. 1/3
- June 1941, American publication. The more things change…
- Putin says neutrality for Ukraine is necessary for peace but Ukraine WAS neutral when he seized Crimea and then invaded outright, so…
- This is so, so much worse, than the initial report suggested (and it was already extremely bad). DOGE are siphoning data and gaining access to systems without security precautions and the Russians — and likely Chinese and who knows who else — has probably broken into their🧵 THREAD: A federal whistleblower just dropped one of the most disturbing cybersecurity disclosures I’ve ever read. He's saying DOGE came in, data went out, and Russians started attempting logins with new valid DOGE passwords Media's coverage wasn't detailed enough so I dug
- The Russian peace arrived in Toretsk. And our fucking moron of a weasel masquerading as a StateSec congratulated the Russians on “Russia Day.” Fuck these dickheads that have betrayed everything America ever stood for. I hope they all burn in hell.
00:00 - Listen to what Poland’s — POLAND! — Foreign Minister Sikorski is saying about Ukraine at the UN after the Russian ambassador referred to it as a “project”: “Ukraine is not a project. Ukraine is a country with a longer history than Russia. Ukraine is a member of this body for farŁadny pojazd po Rosjanach. „Właśnie usłyszeliśmy kolejny występ wykonany przez rosyjskiego ambasadora, składający się z kłamstw, propagandy i hipokryzji. Odnosił się do Ukrainy jako projektu. Ukraina nie jest projektem. Ukraina jest krajem o dłuższej historii niż Rosja”.
00:00 - A Russian general visits the front line and as he’s driving by a wooded area, he hears someone shouting with an Ukrainian accent: “One Ukrainian soldier is better than 10 Russian soldiers! Annoyed, the general sends 10 Russian soldiers. Shooting, screams, nobody comes back.
- Merz is excellent. He is the new leader of Europe. Merz: May I remind you that we are having June 6 tomorrow. This is D-Day anniversary when the Americans once ended a war in Europe... Trump: That was not a pleasant day for you. This was not a great day. Merz: No, in the long
- Putin has ordered the liberation of Kursk before the Jan inauguration of Trump. The Kremlin is pouring troops by the thousands there but they have stalled again. Losses are incredible because commanders know that if victory is achieved nobody will ask them about the cost. 1/8
- Guys, you wouldn’t know it, but Russia lost a million men because it was totally holding back in Ukraine.
