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Simon Ree
@simon_ree
I trade setups, not opinions Ex–Goldman & Citi, Trader, Coach, Jeet Kune Do Instructor, author of The Tao of Trading. Helping people master markets & money
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Joined January 2010
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    At Goldman, and later at Citi, I wrote a desk note called "What Do We Care About Today?" It was read by thousands around the world. I'd walk into a client meeting, someone I'd never met would light up: "You're Simon Ree? Man, I love reading your emails." I stopped writing them
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    This is why most traders fail
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    "Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds Rate exceeding the CPI" - Druck
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    People often wonder why the bond market is “smarter” than the stock market It all boils down to this: Bond traders read books filled with difficult math and go to AGMs and corporate briefings Equity traders read magazines and go to ball games and strip clubs
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    Yield curve inversion does tend to precede major black swan events
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    There is a ton of noise on this app at the moment. To help you cut through that, let me share some key points: 1. Long stocks (esp AI/Mag7), short yen and short vol were 3 VERY CROWDED trades coming into this. Many positioning metrics were at/near the 100th percentile in July.
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    If your timeframe is 12 months or less, valuation has got NOTHING to do with stock price performance. Even if your timeframe is 5 years, 68% of a stock's return can be explained by things other than valuation. Many people refuse to accept this.
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    Folks, my mum asked me about $NVDA yesterday
    GIF
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    Replying to @BillAckman and @SVB_Financial
    Many of those companies would never have received funding in a normal market environment anyway. Their very existence was a function of free money. If private capital *can’t* fund such companies, why the hell should taxpayers?
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    I prepared a deck to help some of my members understand the #bigflip framework as postulated by @INArteCarloDoss Sharing here for those interested 1/4
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    It’s not only the fact that older demographics have higher incomes, they’re also in large part the asset owners. Millennials and younger exist in a world where they can’t afford to get on the property ladder, they can’t afford to raise kids, and so they tend to not even bother
    Put these fuckers back at DM averages and problem is solved. The impossibility to act for these 20 long years is pure insanity.
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    Here's what's on my mind: 1. USD has appreciated 17% in 2022. This has cushioned the US from inflation somewhat. Where would inflation be if USD had remained flat ytd? Double digits for sure. 1/3