Simon Bazelon (@simon

Simon Bazelon

1,078 posts

Simon Bazelon

@simon_bazelon

Lead author, DECIDING TO WIN (link below). Prev: Future Forward, Blue Rose Research, Data for Progress.

New Haven, CT

Joined August 2016

Pinned
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
It's time to renew the Democratic Party. Introducing DECIDING TO WIN: the most comprehensive account yet of where Democrats went wrong, and what we need to do to win again. With a year of research and tons of new data, by @laurenhpope, @liamkerr, and me. Link and 🧵 below.
2.2M
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Nov 1, 2025
I think a point of confusion for a lot of folks is that no one remembers what the "moderate" Democrats of 10-15 years ago were actually like. They were way more conservative than Jared Golden and MGP! Here's an ad from John Barrow, who ran 10% ahead of Obama in GA-12 in 2012.
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1.1M
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
Replying to @simon_bazelon
Prioritization: To win again, our party needs to relentlessly focus on economic issues. The problem: Since 2012, we've become dramatically more focused on issues like climate, democracy, abortion, and identity – and less focused on the economy/middle class. Data below. (3/14)
685K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 28, 2025
The flip side of this: In 2024, Trump did a huge amount of lying about what his agenda would be if he took office. To some extent, it worked – voters thought he was less extreme than he actually was. But now that he's actually governing that way, they're noticing that too!
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 28, 2025
I think this chart is one of the most important stories of the last five years. Biden won in 2020 on his track record of being a moderate Democrat. Then, in office, he moved left substantially—a shift acknowledged and praised by progressives at the time. Voters noticed!
91K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Nov 2, 2025
I think this gets to a lot of my frustrations about people not respecting voters. Voters hold sincere preferences on issues like immigration and crime, which are important to them. We're not going to be able to buy them off any more than we were able to buy off the Teamsters by
Sami Gold
@souljagoyteller
Nov 2, 2025
My solution to winning back these reach seats that will actually be effective instead of “moderation”: Bring back earmarks/pork-barrel spending. Honest graft wins elections
118K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
We NEED to win the 2028 election. Unfortunately, the Democrats currently leading the field are some of the least likely to do that.
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
It's time to renew the Democratic Party. Introducing DECIDING TO WIN: the most comprehensive account yet of where Democrats went wrong, and what we need to do to win again. With a year of research and tons of new data, by @laurenhpope, @liamkerr, and me. Link and 🧵 below.
312K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
The whole point of Deciding to Win is that when you really approach the data rigorously, it just ends up supporting common sense intuitions. The problem is that progressives have been misleading Democrats about the true state of public opinion.
93K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 28, 2025
I think this chart is one of the most important stories of the last five years. Biden won in 2020 on his track record of being a moderate Democrat. Then, in office, he moved left substantially—a shift acknowledged and praised by progressives at the time. Voters noticed!
172K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
Replying to @simon_bazelon
This shift is a huge mistake for our party. Per our polling, voters *overwhelmingly* want Democrats to focus on concrete economic issues, like: - Lowering everyday costs - Protecting Social Security/Medicare - Making health care more affordable - Creating jobs (4/14)
67K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 27, 2025
Attention is not the problem. The Democrats with the biggest social media followings did WORSE in 2024. Our party's problems are substantive, not cosmetic.
112K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Nov 2, 2025
This is absolutely correct. Democrats' primary obstacle in the Senate is not progressives or frontline members. It is that a clear majority of the electorate thinks that our party is too liberal. The mainstream needs to moderate if we're going to have a chance in the Senate.
G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Nov 2, 2025
The Democrats' problem in the Senate is not progressives, it’s the nationalization of our politics gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-ne…
47K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Nov 3, 2025
One of the most constant responses to Deciding to Win has been people saying that the Democratic Party has already tried moderating. I think it's important to understand that this is not true. The Democratic Party is a lot more left-wing than it used to be!
27K
Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Oct 29, 2025
It's not just that swing voters and nonvoters support the same policies. They also care about the same issues-costs! The idea that the couch sitting faction of the electorate are latent socialists who don't voted because Dems don't do enough climate policy or w/e is just false.
Eric Levitz
@EricLevitz
Oct 29, 2025
The idea that Democrats can dispense with persuading heterodox swing voters -- by moving left to mobilize its progressive base -- rests on nothing but bad intuitions, per @simon_bazelon's report vox.com/politics/46625…
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Simon Bazelon
@simon_bazelon
Nov 1, 2025
Replying to @simon_bazelon
Here's a 1996 ad from Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), titled "Locate Parents That Abandon Families," in which he says: "If you have children, you have to support them. And if you walk away, we'll find you. Because taxpayers shouldn't have to pick up the tab." The past is a
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