We’ve arrived at a stage when avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict is going to take luck or effort. Existing guardrails are eroding by the day if not the hour.
Samuel Charap
2,829 posts
Samuel Charap
@scharap
- so... the implications of an isolated, angry Putin presiding over a grinding, existential conventional war and an economy devastated by sanctions are really terrifying. The chances of his accepting "defeat" are far lower than the chances he escalates dramatically.
- It seems to me that the only well planned part of this entire play has been the military piece. No one beyond the military and the services seems to have even been in the loop. I wouldn’t be surprised if the post-invasion plan is about as good as the US one in Iraq was.
- Important that some Western leaders are trying to talk Putin out of this madness, even if the chances of success are vanishingly low.I spoke to President Putin this morning. He refuses to stop his attacks on Ukraine at this point. It is vital to maintain dialogue to avoid human tragedy. I will continue my efforts and contacts. We must avoid the worst.
- The longer this goes on, the more brutal it is likely to get. And we haven't seen the most destructive Russian capabilities employed yet: indirect fires, unguided bombs, etc.
- This Putin address to the Security Council is absolutely terrifying. Not showing any hint of compromise. Glorifying the "bravery" of Russian forces and doubling down on the "Nazi" rhetoric re: Ukraine. Extremely emotional. Blood curdling. youtube.com/watch?v=6Tmqyy…
- Main takeaway from that barnburner of a speech is that Russia now has given itself a pretext to respond to "attacks" on DNR and LNR with no need to conceal its direct military involvement. thread 1/x
- Seems like cruise missiles are flying. This is going to be very big. Nothing limited about Putin's speech or this military operation. This is a big war.
- Let's be clear. What is happening now is a large-scale military operation against Ukraine. Forget about the Donbas. It's a sideshow.
- Just saw a @WSJ headline that the Dow is up 600 points because Russia "agreed" to talks with the Ukrainian leadership, confirming once again that markets simply cannot accept the reality of how bad this is going to get. It's verging on delusional.
- One gets the sense that folks in this town smell blood in the proverbial water regarding the stability of the (odious) Putin regime. Let's file that under "careful what you wish for". Thread. 1/7
- for the record, Putin just effectively declared war on Ukraine.
- About the clearest warning sign that could exist
- Putin "I have declared a special military operation"
