Pavel Podvig (@russianforces) / X

Pavel Podvig

30.7K posts

Pavel Podvig

@russianforces

Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here. All coordinates are at russianforces.org/podvig

russianforces.org/podvig

Joined July 2009

Pinned
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Feb 24, 2022
It's a crime, a mistake, stupidity and treason, all wrapped in one. My heart is with Ukrainians and with those in Russia who stands against this war
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Mar 5, 2022
Can Russia's president launch nuclear weapons alone? The honest answer is "we don't know." A short answer is "probably." A longer answer is "it's complicated." A longish thread that may (or may not) help clarify things 1/
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Mar 6, 2022
Russia is pushing a story about Ukraine's being "a few months away from acquiring nuclear weapons." The quote is from a TASS story (no link - don't want to send people their way). Don't have time for a long version, so here is a short one - this is pure unadulterated bullshit
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Feb 27, 2022
Yes, it was a very explicit nuclear threat: “the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history” x.com/russianforces/… This all makes me nervous. Kremlin has no good off-ramps at this point and is looking at an existential threat to the current state
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Jun 25, 2023
It is not even the Voronezh-45 storage facility in the image. This is what happens when Twitter sells blue check marks to all kinds of randos
1.7M
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Feb 27, 2022
What is this "special mode of combat duty of the deterrence forces"? Hard to tell with certainty, but most likely it means that the nuclear command and control system received what is known as a preliminary command tass.com/defense/1412575 1/8
Putin orders "special service regime" in Russia’s deterrence force
From tass.com
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Apr 27, 2022
There seems to be quite a bit of confusion about 'tactical' nuclear weapons, their potential use, 'lower nuclear threshold,' etc. That's my strong impression from the kinds of questions that I've been getting. I don't claim to have all answers, but here is my take 1/
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Jun 24, 2023
Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible. I wanted to write a longer thread, but things are happening way too fast. 1/
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Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Nov 21, 2024
Regarding reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. Regarding the "intercontinental" claim, the distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km. It's not an intercontinental range. But it's complicated. Short thread 1/
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Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Feb 27, 2022
The thing to do at this point is for everyone, literally everyone - US, NATO, NWS, NAS, NNWS, TPNW - to say forcefully and clearly that a threat of nuclear weapons is absolutely unacceptable. ABSOLUTELY. No nuclear dick-waving, please. This might get serious.
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Feb 24, 2022
Anti-war protest in Novosibirsk. I must say that my strong impression is that this war is very unpopular in Russia. Some protest openly, others just worry quietly. I think @samagreene noticed that the Kremlin didn't even attempt to organize a show of public support
Сергей Бойко
@_sergey_boyko
Feb 24, 2022
В Новосибирске шествие. Скандируют: "Нет войне!"
00:00
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
May 24, 2024
This is not good (to put it mildly)
krakek
@krakek1
May 24, 2024
Apparently Ukraine has attacked a Russian ballistic missile early warning radar in Armavir, Russia. This destruction of this particular radar node has limited direct military utility for Ukraine, due to its coverage. I guess some one really wants to test stability.
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Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Sep 27, 2022
It's understandable that a few recent developments again made people worry again about nuclear use. I don't have a crystal ball, but there are a few things to consider. And they seem to suggest that we are still at least a few steps away from that point. 1/11
Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Mar 4, 2022
The world is smaller than we may think. This photo went viral on pet-friendly sites. It's my relative and her son, leaving Kyiv (where the photo was taken). The dog's name is Boni. There is also a turtle there, named Khvostik (Little Tail). Everybody is now safe in Poland.