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Rorry Daniels
@rorrydaniels
Managing Director @AsiaPolicy and Asia security specialist. Opinions my own. She/her. Crossposting @ rorrydaniels.bsky.social
Princeton, NJ
Joined April 2009
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    🚨NEW: As Trump begins a second term, the policy landscape is marked by heightened U.S.-China competition, shifting alliances, and new alignments. Explore expert recommendations in @asiapolicy’s new briefing: ASPI Notes for the Trump Administration: asiasociety.org/aspi-notes-tru… 🧵⬇️
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    What does Trump 2.0 mean for Asia? Some thoughts: 1. The biggest whiplash will be on the role and value of U.S. alliances. Moving from central to U.S. strategy to questioned as a value at all will accelerate trends in cooperation. 1/
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    An existential struggle—by definition—means that one side must disappear for the other side to survive. This committee is not just “sketching the threat” to U.S interests, they are using American tax dollars to build the case for war with China.
    A new U.S. House committee on China held its first hearing, sketching out the threat it says Beijing poses to U.S. interests and calling for a concerted response. "This is not a polite tennis match. This is an existential struggle.” @charleshutzler on.wsj.com/3xWTfFL
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    It also begs an alternate analysis to the ‘China got played’ argument: it’s possible that an autocracy’s poor information environment compounds exponentially when coordinating with other autocracies.
    This is a very telling data point, confirms confusion amongst 🇨🇳PRC leadership on the broader implications of the 🇷🇺Russian invasion of 🇺🇦Ukraine and expectations of the war.
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    Will Xi Jinping attend Donald Trump's inauguration? I doubt it, but interesting opening move. My thoughts: 1) Xi and Trump do need to meet early to set the tone of the bilateral relationship over the next 4 years. No other channel will be authoritative enough for either side 1/6
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    The postponement of Blinken's trip to China over the balloon incident is disappointing but not surprising in the current state of US-China relations and domestic politics 🧵👇
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    I’m delighted to start today as Managing Director of @AsiaPolicy, a terrific global team with a track record of high quality work and a lot of exciting projects on the horizon.
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    Seeing tweets expressing surprise that Gen. Milley felt it necessary to reassure the Chinese last fall—but anyone who talked to the Chinese about security issues at that time could corroborate these concerns. 1/5
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    The PLA has started large military drills in and around the Taiwan Strait—what’s happening? A thread 1/
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    Replying to @rorrydaniels
    If no one would tell Putin he is miscalculating, and no one would tell Xi that Putin is miscalculating, then no surprise that China miscalculated. In other words, rather than China getting played by Russia, both leaders were played by their own sycophantic systems…
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    Seems like we're careening toward a choice between an unknown risk (the global spread/fatality rate of COVID-19) and a known risk (the economic effects of pandemic responses like quarantines). Who gets to decide what to prioritize?
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    Re Xi-Biden meeting, I think both sides got what they wanted…for now. Mtg very focused on benefits of coordination/cooperation rather than areas of competition/conflict. Short 🧵👇
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    Replying to @rorrydaniels
    But we should all be concerned that an essential tool of crisis management-diplomacy-is held hostage to the political mood in DC and hamstrung by predictable types of events. This is not a sustainable way to responsibly manage the most important relationship in the world. END
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    Replying to @rorrydaniels
    Meanwhile, pressure is likely off India for its support of Putin and off North Korea for supporting the war in Ukraine. Trump is going to put some new creases and wrinkles in this multipolar world. 5/