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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
This place is getting more sinister, maybe on my way out. Director @CCDD_HSPH Tweets in personal capacity. Didn’t pay for blue check
Boston, MA
hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…
Joined September 2009
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  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 15, 2020
    Repeating my plea to media: PLEASE stop saying "there are now X number of cases in the US" and start saying "as of today X cases have been reported in the US. Because of limited testing, experts agree the real number is far higher." We don't know how much higher but many times
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Jan 23, 2022
    Love this
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Nov 5, 2020
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Apr 14, 2020
    I’ve been trying my best to stick to science and not politics but as a public health professional and an American it makes me ill to see @POTUS cutting funding to @WHO at any time but especially in a pandemic
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US
    Social Distancing Scoreboard
    From unacast.com
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 27, 2020
    Replying to @mlipsitch
    Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.
  • user avatar
    Marc Lipsitch
    @mlipsitch
    Mar 7, 2020
    Hey @nytimes @washingtonpost @WSJ @latimes this is a good time to unpaywall #COVIDー19 coverage. All responsible med journals are doing it. Public needs good info & the paywalls turn income inequality into health disparities. I fully support paid model for journo but not for this