Replying to @metaculus
4/ You don't have to work in animal welfare to participate. If you do, your expertise makes the forecasts credible. If you're a forecaster looking for sharp, decision-relevant questions, jump in.
Open now:
Metaculus
3,658 posts
Metaculus
@metaculus
Forecasts on critical topics.
Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub
FutureEval: metaculus.com/futureeval
Partner: metaculus.com/services
- Replying to @metaculus3/ The goal: forecasts that feed directly into real decisions. Funders, advocacy orgs, and researchers make big strategic calls with limited data. Calibrated probability estimates from a global forecasting community beat going on vibes.
- Replying to @metaculus2/ The questions were sourced from people working across the animal movement and vetted so each forecast can inform a real decision, including: - Where should funding go? - Will corporate cage-free commitments hold? - How will farmed animal numbers shift over the next decade? -
- 1/ Every year, hundreds of millions of dollars flow into animal advocacy. Which interventions actually work? Which don't? We just launched a forecasting tournament to help find out. 🐄 The Animal Futures Tournament, with a prize pool via @manifund. Questions crowdsourced from
- Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026? The Metaculus community currently gives this a 67% chance. But why did this question become user WasteTimeContinuum’s favorite question of the Metaculus Summer Cup? Find
- Replying to @metaculusI tried tugging at it from the direction of incentive structures. Anthropic has claimed, as of today, “…And in the near future, once we’ve developed the far stronger safeguards we need, we look forward to making Mythos-class models available through a general release.” reasons
- Q: Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026? The Metaculus community currently sees an 81% probability of this happening. While you determine whether or not you agree, check out this comment from user matru, who approaches the question by
- Midterms Forecast: House, 85% chance Democrats retake | Senate, 59% chance Republicans retain Most likely outcome: split Congress; Rep Senate, Dem House (47%) Continuously updated Metaculus Midterms Tracker: metaculus.com/midterms-2026/
- Most polls got 2016, '20, & '24 wrong. What do forecasters think will happen in the 2026 midterms? Our Midterms Tracker has forecasts on every Senate, House, & governor's race that matters. See the electoral & policy consequences riding on each one: metaculus.com/midterms-2026/
- Replying to @metaculus5/ Forecasters are still debating how this situation might evolve. Pro Forecaster @BenShindel outlines possible damage scenarios here:Replying to @soft_fox_lad20% chance of fairly large economic damage to the cattle farming industry that has small effects on the average American through moderately increased beef prices, and 80% chance of moderate economic damage that no one cares about outside of cattle farmers?
- Replying to @metaculus4/ We just launched the third question today: "How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?" Leave your forecast here:
