Before 2020, I never wore a mask during flu-season. This is NOT bc I had done an analysis and decided that preventable flu deaths were "acceptable". It is because I didn't know, and if I had known, I would have started wearing a mask during flu season ages ago...
Many seem to be assuming that covid provides lasting immunity, even though we already know it does not. Each covid infection raises the risk of creating a new "pre-existing condition" that will make subsequent infections more dangerous 5/
Even if EVERYONE does get covid, delaying WHEN we do so has benefits. The longer we can wait, the greater the chance of new treatments being developed, more effective vaccines, better anti-virals, scaling production of paxlovid, etc. 7/
Not everyone is going to get omicron. And the difference between 80% vs 60% (both still very big) of a population catching it would be a huge difference in absolute numbers of people that wind up permanently disabled. 3/
Due to bad messaging, many people misunderstand:
- Severity & prevalence of LongCOVID
- Airborne spread
Many may voluntarily choose to change their behavior if they better understood (particularly if given options: free N95s, work-from-home when possible, etc) 9/
1/ Can't put it better than @micah_arsham does here. The CDC treats the public like 1st-graders. Their job is to inform & advise the public, warning of any imminent dangers, & they've utterly failed. People will be blind-sided, with grim consequences.
x.com/micah_arsham/s…
Not everyone's immune systems will be able to take the repeated hits. In a population, getting covid 1x (on average) over the next 2 years vs. 3x (on average) over next 2 years is likely to result in significant differences in how many end up permanently disabled. 6/
Harmful false binaries:
- covid cases either die OR recover
- our only options are lockdowns OR no mitigations at all
- covid zero OR there's no point reducing transmission
- you think vaccines are *all* we need OR you are anti-vaccine
It is ableist to ignore the many people (including some children) who are high health risk and more likely to die or experience extreme illness if they get covid. Again, any reduction in transmission can save lives. 11/
Not everyone is going to get omicron. And the difference between 80% vs 60% (both still very big) of a population catching it would be a huge difference in absolute numbers of people that wind up permanently disabled. 3/
The intervention (vaccines) changed our goal. Vaccines are great at reducing hospitalization & death, but not at reducing transmission. But "mild" cases can still result in long-permanent disability, so reducing transmission remains crucial 10/
In fact, we aren’t even talking about transmission reduction anymore! Most of the focus is severe disease prevention, because that is what vaccines do. The intervention has shaped the goal. If vaccines did something different, then that would be the goal.
I don't want empty reassurances about how omicron is peaking, "it's almost over", just push through.
This short-term thinking from leaders is exhausting & deadly. 1/