The “Vegas is rigged” crowd is awfully quiet tonight.
4/4 today.
Welcome to the future.
The “Polymarket is rigged” crowd is awfully quiet tonight.
5/5 today.
Welcome to the future.
Maple
329 posts
- betting is easy, all you need to do is find 91% likely outcomes priced at 70% rather than 92%. if you do this you will come out ahead with this surprising edge91% Accuracy on Polymarket: Why You Cant Ignore It (But Shouldnt Blindly Trust It) Now, every time I try to analyze markets on Polymarket, I cant get past their 91% accuracy one month before resolution. It is a statistic that feels like a cheat code - until you actually trade on
- Replying to @willibeeminwhen the fighter wins the fight his odds go to 99%, mind blown. in my opinion his odds of winning the fight were more like 100% at that point, but close enough
- Replying to @Stakes_Royalewhen you find a SGP edge, the smartest thing to do is tweet it out constantly and sell it to subscribers. congrats
- a historical 1.75% ROI NFL sides bettor (impressive) release can convince SIG to move 1.5m shares of liquidity as if it's a 6% edge. what a world
- BREAKING: UTSA will win their basketball game against the College of Biblical Studies, as projected by @Kalshi. Watching games is dead. Tomorrow's news, today.
- Replying to @peanut_bettorkalshi and poly badge bros love making long writeups on how to win that make no sense while applauding each other in the comment section for the genius insights
- Replying to @storm_pigNot really relevant since they don’t offer unders. I’d say this is a fair criticism
- EV PLAY OF THE DAY @Novig Bo Nickal to win by KO/TKO/DQ +400 Devig to pinnacle 2 way line FV: +311 EV: 21.6545% I'm in for my QK of 1.36u 🤝
- if you or someone you know materially benefits from ETR prop releases (that is not from fading the move on releases you disagree with) please explain yourself
- huge props to @PlayProphetX in some aggressive commission cuts lately. too bad i think it's more fun to bet into the wide bid-ask spreads and 3.5% take fees at kalshi
- Very interesting discussion overall on what is fair game for bettors. I agree with @DeRosa_Antonino overall that exploiting glitches and errors is net negative. Crazy take to say you would let a sportsbook know if they were miscalculating correlation in an SGP, especially one
- Replying to @AbsolutelyAlphawow this changes everything I thought was true about betting. going to start asking my bookmaker to take 8 points away from me because the side is the side
