Global liquidity hit $187 trillion but the 3-month annualized momentum just decelerated from 12% to 9.8%. Michael Howell thinks the current cycle - which typically lasts 5-6 years - will likely peak in 2025 and is now transitioning into its late speculative stage.
The interesting
Luke Davis
297 posts
Founder & Chief Strategist - Bull Market Blueprint
Guiding investors to grow & protect 6/7/8 figure portfolios
link.bullmarketblueprint.com/bmb-yt
Joined May 2016
- Everyone's dreaming of "altcoin season" while I just banked 20% in 16 days by doing the exact opposite. We’ve got Bitcoin dominance going sideways for 5 weeks meaning zero new money flowing into alts. Yet crypto Twitter keeps pushing the Q4 "alt season" narrative. But the
- September Prediction: Hard flush early (maybe already happened) → slow and steady rebound rest of month. OR Sideways and choppy bleed all month → maximum STH pain and capitulation Both paths lead to explosive Q4 according to macro conditions. Dont fade liquidity dynamics.
- When the dollar starts trending up and global liquidity peaks, the party's ending. We're not there yet, but most will be too blinded by euphoria to see the warning signs when we are.
- This crash reminded me why I'm obsessed with boring portfolios. Yeah, the market (specifically stocks) was overheated. That's the easy argument to make. But Trump dropping 100% tariff news after hours during thin liquidity? That wasn't on anyone's chart. $19B liquidated in 24
- The more I look at October 10th, the more it looks like something broke structurally in crypto that day. Not just a dip. Equities recovered in 48 hours and made new highs. Crypto crashed and never came back. $19 billion liquidated. Funds potentially insolvent. Market makers
- Bitcoin closed its weekly right at the bull market support band while everyone's screaming for a September crash. Global liquidity up, financial conditions easing, DXY sideways... Every previous hold at this level led to continuation higher within weeks.
- Global liquidity hit $184.6 trillion this week - a new record high. Historical data shows liquidity leads risk assets by 3 months with 70-80% accuracy. Q2 and Q3 expansion supports Q4 rally thesis. Dollar weakness + easing cycle = capital flows into hard assets. Source:
- Stop overthinking crypto right now. Simple reality check: If you can't find ONE altcoin chart that looks bullish after scanning the entire market, the answer isn't always "keep looking harder." The answer could be: there's no trend to trade yet. Cash is a position.
- Here's what institutions actually do that retail doesn't: They measure opportunity cost against their base case (Bitcoin). If an asset isn't outperforming BTC, they ask: "Why take the extra risk?" Retail holds 47 different alts hoping one moons. Institutions hold assets that
- I'll say what nobody else will: Most altcoins are in a bear market. Have been all year. "But cycles-“ No. Lower highs since Q1. "But macro-“ Global liquidity is perfect. They're still down. "But accumulation-“ Cope has a different name now. Trading below 50-week MA ≠ Buying
- Bitcoin dominance climbing from 57% to 60% while price is falling tells you everything. It’s financial evacuation. Money's not moving between crypto assets, it's leaving crypto entirely.
- We're on day 38 of the government shutdown. Longest ever. Think about what that means for a second. Fed doesn't have official September or October jobs numbers. No PCE data. No retail sales. No Q3 GDP. Nothing. They're setting monetary policy completely in the dark going
- Recession-related cuts average -16% market returns over 12 months. Rate cuts during healthy economic conditions average +20%. Current setup: 3.3% GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, solid earnings. Historical parallel points to 2019 insurance cuts, not 2008 crisis mode.








