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Larry Brilliant MD MPH FACPM πŸ’›πŸ’™
@larrybrilliant
Fmr Prof, Epidemiology, co-founder, Seva Foundation, The Well, Google.org. WHO med officer: smallpox, health plan, CEO Evity.ai, Snr counselor Skoll Fnd.
Marin County
Joined November 2008
Posts
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    I just spent several days with @richardbranson and @sufisal (Dr. Salman Ahmed) discussing the dangerous detention of former PM @ImranKhanPTI in Pakistan. As a physician and friend of Pakistan, I have watched with pain and sadness at his deterioriting health status while a
    It's not cricket. @ImranKhanPTI should be released immediately by Pakistan’s authorities. His arbitrary detention casts a dark shadow on respect for democracy and rule of law in Pakistan: time.com/7093750/pakist…
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    Always important to pause and take this number inβ€”half a year after our first case, the richest country in the world again has 1000 deaths each day. I cannot imagine a tragedy, a failure of this magnitude under any previous President, or any other administration.
    Our daily update is published. States reported 798k tests and 65k new cases of COVID-19. States reported 1,037 deaths today, which was our fifth day in a row of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
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    COVID-19 is a horrible disease with long term memory loss, diminished myocardial function and chronic lung disease. I can understand confusion about how bad this novel disease was 8 or 9 months ago. But anyone who would β€œdownplay” its seriousness TODAY is just as horrible.
    New study of 60 #COVID19 patients finds 55% were still displaying neurological symptoms during follow-up visits 3 months later. When compared brain scans to controls, brains of COVID patients showed changes that correlated w/ memory loss & smell loss. thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
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    #OmicronVariant. We should rush 200 million doses of mRNA vaccine to Botswana and South Africa today. And increase PCR capacity to the max since PCRs detect. We could then focus vaccine on infected areas and break chains of transmission. Please Act today. Not tomorrow. Today.
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    I was once in the White House, Roosevelt Room. Obama was thanking people who had helped the Ebola outbreak. And then he broke out.... into an epidemiological lecture. Swear to God it was the best lecture on combating epidemics. He knew ever detail.....and then there is Trump.
    β€œDonald Trump wants to take full credit for the economy he inherited and no responsibility for the pandemic he ignored.” @BarackObama in Philly moments ago.
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    I worked for @WHO for 10 yearsβ€”on smallpox, polio, blindness, tsunami relief. I’ve worked with six DGs. I found @DrTedros and Gro Brundtland the best. There is a very political campaign now against @DrTedros. It is wrong. We need this good man and great public health leader.
    I had the privilege to work closely with @DrTedros on various occasions and can attest to his dedication, principled leadership and hard-work.Β His vision and commitment to serve humanity equally is what led him to @WHO and the world stage. Let’s give him space to do his job.
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    β€œCOVID-19: WHY WE SHOULD ALL WEAR MASKS β€Šβ€”β€ŠTHERE IS NEW SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE” by Sui Huang link.medium.com/XcIahg2wg5
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    Withdrawing from @WHO in the middle of a historic pandemic is one of history’s greatest blunders. We could not have eradicated smallpox nor made such progress against polio without @WHO. This foolish actionβ€”done to deflect blameβ€” will instead cause many Americans deaths. Sigh.
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    It gets worse and worse; epidemiologists depend on CDC's MMWR Weekly Report. To learn that Trump and his appointees edited out CDC’s COVID danger warnings because they β€œconflicted with the presidents more optimistic message” makes me sick to my stomach.
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    This might help explain how many (on average) new people are infected by cases of various Viruses including COVID variants. R0 is the β€œbasic reproduction” value. For smallpox in the 1970’s it was about 3.5-4.5. So the Delta variant is more transmissible than smallpox.
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    Very important study from Guangdong Provincial CDC shows Delta variant has shorter inter-generational time (4 vs 6 day); 1000x number of viruses on first day detected. And possible R-0 double or triple original. In a word: Delta variant is very bad.
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    Total US #COVID cases 1 million to 2 M- 44 days 2 million to 3 M- 27 daysΒ  3 million to 4 M- 15 days 4 million to 5 M - 17 days 5 million to 6 M - 22 days 6 million to 7 M - 25 days 7 million to 8 M - 21 days 8 million to 9 M - 14 days 9 million to 10M - 10 days Not going away.
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    There is controversy over whether Mpox can be airborne. It is in the same Orthopox family as smallpox; and the last death from smallpox in history was from what we think an airborne spread through an HVAC system. Let’s not underestimate this virus as we have so many before.
    JUST INβ€” W.H.O. Declares Global Emergency Over New Mpox Outbreak. The threat this time is deadlier. Since the beginning of this year, the Democratic Republic of Congo alone has reported more than 14,000 mpox cases and 524 deaths. Those most at risk include women and children
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    The most heartbreaking headline is this: β€œIgnore CDC”. Our beloved CDC. The gem of American health. The North Star of global health. The Mecca of epidemiologists. CDC: one more great American institution undermined and sidelined, hollowed out by Trump.