Kraz Greinetz (@krazgreinetz) / X

Kraz Greinetz

6,089 posts

Kraz Greinetz

@krazgreinetz

San Francisco ➡️ UMD '21 🐢/Duke Law '24. Football and elections. Articles for @elections_daily and @49erswebzone

Joined January 2017

Pinned
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Jul 2, 2020
I'm finally headed back to UMD, 111 days after I got sent home due to the Coronavirus Pandemic. In that time I've made 44 maps. Here they all are in chronological order. I hope you people learn as much from looking at them as I learned from making them.
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Apr 4, 2021
The feminism leaving my girlfriend’s body when it’s time to divide up the driving on a road trip.
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Dec 8, 2024
Lots of jokes about Assad losing because of inflation, not going on Rogan, etc. But people forget the time the long-time dictator of the Gambia held a sham election and got so lazy about rigging it that he just straight up lost to some real estate developer.
327K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Jan 7, 2025
People keep saying this but a simpler explanation is that America in 1930 was orders of magnitude poorer than America today. The vast majority of adults didn’t finish high school. The New Deal playbook doesn’t work anymore because America isn’t a developing country in 2025.
Zack Stentz
@MuseZack
Jan 7, 2025
I think the big reason why FDR was beloved for generations while Obama & Biden got zero credit for their huge stimulus projects is that when those New Deal programs allocated money, people saw stuff getting built. Now it takes years & years from allocation to shovels digging.
428K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Jun 8, 2022
Boudin is losing virtually every neighborhood with lots of non-white voters except for the Mission. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, he's winning places with lots of progressive whites (Noe Valley, Castro, Haight) and nowhere else.
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Nov 6, 2024
Doubly hard for Democrats is that 2016 had obvious explanations. Clinton took blue collar voters for granted. Her favorables were bad. Kamala had good favorables, spent all her effort on winning moderate suburbanites and just collapsed with them anyway.
Max
@maxtmcc
Nov 6, 2024
In 2016, at least, Democrats saw an obvious opening with college-ed suburbs moving forward. This election, it’s hard to see any group looking strong for Harris. What will Dems do going forward?
526K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Sep 21, 2024
My conspiracy is that Silver’s code was messed up and he changed it without telling anyone. The polls have only marginally changed, no way his convention bounce variable should have been affecting the race this much for a *month* and then disappear in the span of a few days.
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Sep 20, 2024
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning) September 9 🟥 Trump: 64.4% 🟦 Harris: 35.3% September 20 🟦 Harris: 51.1% 🟥 Trump: 48.6% —— Swing States: chance of winning Michigan - 🔵 Harris 62-38% Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 55-45% Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris 54-46% Nevada -
358K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Nov 4, 2020
Democrats in Texas are going to have to reckon with the fact that the state had record turnout beyond their wildest dreams and Trump still won by 6%. For years the conventional wisdom was that Texas was red because of low turnout, but I don't think that idea holds up anymore.
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
May 16, 2023
Georgia be like 2008: 12 points to the right of the nation 2012: 11 points to the right of the nation 2016: 8 points to the right of the nation 2018: 10 points to the right of the nation Blue Georgia believers: Aw hell yeah, this is flippable in 2020.
377K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Oct 17, 2024
I think the sheer scale and intensity of a single swing state campaign would send even the most seasoned British political operatives into a coma.
NewsWire
@NewsWire_US
Oct 17, 2024
LONDON — More than 100 current and former UK Labour Party staffers will head to battleground states in the U.S. to campaign for Kamala Harris, a party official says.
146K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Nov 5, 2024
I think the evidence suggests now that this will be a higher turnout election than 2020. Pollsters have mostly been modeling *less* turnout than 2020. I have no idea which way that cuts or if it will have an effect at all on a potential polling error.
Ryan Brune
@BruneElections
Nov 5, 2024
Ohio is almost certainly going to beat its 2020 total turnout just looking through the counties.
405K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
May 6, 2024
Someone should study how even though this service literally didn’t exist ten years ago, there’s somehow now a large group of people on this site who treat it as an essential human right they can’t live without.
143K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Jul 8, 2024
Getting harder to see how Biden turns this around. His big advertising advantage is about to disappear. He’s not physically capable of running the kind of campaign he likely needs to. Dems keep assuming the calvary is coming but they don’t own any horses.
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
Jul 8, 2024
#New General Election Poll - Swing State's Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +5 Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5 Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1 Arizona - 🔴 Trump +4 Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +3 Nevada - 🔴 Trump +6 Emerson (🔵)
161K
Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
Nov 28, 2020
I have never deleted an app harder than how I'm gonna delete Zoom once I get this vaccine.