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My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Kyle Kondik
79.1K posts
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
- there was a certain "holy s--t" aspect to the 2014, 2016, and 2020 final Selzer polls, but this takes the cake
- Shutdown protester GOP candidate is losing her state senate primary 61-39 dispatch.com/news/20200414/…
- Even if 2023 majority not at stake, GA runoff is still really important as you look ahead to 2024 Senate map. Ds could really use an extra seat cushion given how exposed they are next time
- In a year of exceptionally bad GOP Senate candidates, Masters took the cake IMHO. Totally off-putting and bizarro
- Man, Wolf Blitzer just said he wouldn't be surprised if this was the last debate
- Tonight is such a blowout so far that I wonder if it gives some Rs pause about redistricting in states that are still pondering it. They already needed to "stress-test" the districts (and they did in TX-NC-MO, I think, even considering tonight), but still.
- I had a similar reaction - Trump won Sumter County (the Villages is mostly in that county) by 39 points
- SurveyUSA has Ossoff 50-48 & Warnock 52-45 in the GA-SEN runoffs this morning. FWIW, same pollster had Biden +2 and Perdue +3 in mid-October (pretty decent finding compared to results) Runoff poll - surveyusa.com/client/PollRep… mid-October poll - surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
- CRYSTAL BALL GUBERNATORIAL RATING CHANGE NC-GOV Leans D to Likely D Obviously a fluid situation but Robinson was in bad shape before and worse shape now
- Six House ratings changes, all in favor of Dems. Comstock (R, VA-10) Toss-up > Leans D Brat (R, VA-7) Leans R > Toss-up Taylor (R, VA-2) Leans R > Toss-up Walters (R, CA-45) Leans R > Toss-up NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) Leans D > Likely D MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Likely R > Leans R
- Harris 47-44 Rosen 48-41 From solid GOP firm, Tarrance GroupI hate to be a tease (actually I really don't), but we have some very interesting Nevada poll results coming tomorrow from one of the country's most respected guys in the field. I wish I could tell you more, but wake up early! cc: @NateSilver538 and EVERYONE ELSEthenevadaindependent.comGOP pollster: Harris and Rosen up in Nevada, voter ID in landslide - The Nevada IndependentA majority of Nevadans support voter ID laws, while Kamala Harris gains ground over Donald Trump in new polling, reflecting shifting dynamics in Nevada politics.
- FINAL CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS -- THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Biden 321, Trump 217 Biden restores some of the Dem Midwest strength and breaks new ground in Sun Belt
- Buttigieg dropping out is a great illustration of how detached IA & NH have become from the Democratic Party's reality. He did great in both and basically got nothing from them going forward.
