Pinned
Out now open access at @AJPS_Editor. 194 potential exclusion-restriction violations for studies using weather as an instrumental variable onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
Jon Mellon
6,198 posts
Jon Mellon
@jon_mellon
Co-director @besresearch. Former Associate Professor. polisci methods/political behavior. Tweets do not represent employer.
Joined October 2010
- Everyone's focusing on the gender breakdown but I really admire the chutzpah of the 2% of pensioners who think they could win a point off Serena
- Update to my weather IV paper. IV assumes effect of instrument on Y works only through instrumented variable X. But scientists have linked weather to 192 variables, which makes exclusion restriction assumption implausible. This plot is just for rainfall: osf.io/preprints/soca…
- Just updated my weather IV working paper: tldr: all IV weather papers represent potential exclusion restriction violations for all other IV weather papers. I find 1̵3̵7̵ 176 possible exclusion restriction violations osf.io/preprints/soca…
- Just put up a research note on using weather as an instrumental variable. tldr: all IV weather papers represent exclusion restriction violations for all other IV weather papers. I find 137 possible exclusion restriction violations papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
- New working paper! What drives electoral change? Do election results change because of party switching or turnout? Party switching is the most important factor in 96% of elections (across 103 individual-level panel surveys in 18 countries) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… /thread
- Situations when another study using the same instrument (W) as you *doesn't* imply an exclusion restriction violation
- Replying to @jon_mellonFinal seat counts against exit poll (in brackets) Con 318 (316) Lab 262 (265) LD 12 (13) SNP 35 (34) UKIP 0 (0) PC 4 (3) Grn 1 (1)
- New paper on using AI to code survey responses! @PoliSciJack @ralphascott @Marta_Miori @jamesbreckwoldt and I show chatGPT/GPT-3 can achieve near-human performance on coding “most important issue” @BESResearch survey responses with zero training papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
- It's too early to quantify the size of any polling misses in the US, but a lot of research has consistently found no evidence for shy voters and lots of evidence for unrepresentative samples and weighting problems review article with @caprosser here …cambridge-org.manchester.idm.oclc.org/core/journals/…
- Alternative: Excel is a great piece of software that's *so* good that people keep using it for things it's woefully unsuited for.
- I'm delighted to report that I have been promoted to senior lecturer at Manchester
- Replying to @stochasticianAlternate theory: Satoshi Nakamoto is a time-travelling singularity AI from 2038 who created bitcoin to increase demand for GPUs and create a large decentralized GPU network that could be highjacked by a breakout AI
- New draft of my weather IV paper with exciting new exclusion restriction violations including UFO sightings osf.io/preprints/soca…
