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Kalshi does not experience the same issues. Our crypto prediction markets resolve based on:
1. aggregrated prices across multiple exchanges
2. TWAP for manipulation resistance
3. a regulated benchmark (CF)
Just one of the many factors why we’ve grown to 80% market share
Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ):
