Gerard DiPippo
10.9K posts
Gerard DiPippo
@gdp1985
Director, Global Macro, Eurasia Group. Former RAND China Research Center, Bloomberg Economics, CSIS, DNIO for Economic Issues, and CIA. Views my own.
- Quite the day for Chinese export controls... Big things are happening.
- “China was chasing us, and they had a knife,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
- Sorry, but you don't get to be friends with a country invading another European country and then say it's unfair to link your support for aggression with broader China-Europe relations. This was Beijing's choice. They chose poorly.
- Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new @RANDCorporation Commentary. 1/
- The US is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. Our new @RANDCorporation Commentary on applying six lessons from China's experience to the current moment in US economic policy... 🧵 1/
- Jude Blanchette (@CSISFreeman) and I have a new @CSIS Brief on why forceful “reunification” with Taiwan would be a disaster for China, even if “successful”.🧵 1/
- Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
- To say the quiet part out loud: China is revising last year's data to make this year's growth look better. The NBS didn't just discover new data from a year ago. It's data falsification. It's occurring in other series too. No need for stimulus!
- China is dialing its industrial policy up to 11 while the US is rolling back its industrial policy. Curious how this will turn out.China just unveiled a colossal 1 trillion RMB (!) national VC fund dubbed a “carrier-class” initiative specifically targeting AI, quantum computing, hydrogen energy, bio-manufacturing, 6G, etc. According to the NDRC chief, the fund will take a “patient capital” approach,
- Pretty sure the US is going to tolerate it... Also, stop pretending that "economic coercion" only applies to what China is doing! It's pure USG Brain and sounds ridiculous to everyone with a normal brain. The concept isn't normative, it's descriptive.
- The argument here is: 1) China's interventions in the economy are bad yet explain its competitiveness 2) they corrode US democratic capitalism 3) US must safeguard capitalism with state interventions Unclear what "capitalism" we're preserving here. 1/ foreignaffairs.com/china/case-for….
- Miran's central claim is that inelastic global demand for USD reserves drives USD "overvaluation". While it's complicated, that claim is basically false. This undermines his argument and his policy solutions. 🧵The era of (Asian) reserve accumulation ended a decade ago. 1/
What do people think of Stephen Miran's "A User’s Guide to Restructuring: the Global Trading System"?
