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Central banks: from whatever it takes to whatever it breaks.
Frederik Ducrozet
46.2K posts
Frederik Ducrozet
@fwred
Head of Strategy & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management @PictetGroup.
ECB Watcher. All opinions mine.
Switzerland
Joined April 2009
- 🇩🇪 What the German government just announced is nothing short of extraordinary. We’ve been waiting for a fiscal policy shift for twenty years; the US president got us there in ten days.
- 🇪🇺 The most depressing European chart ever: long-term growth expectations are down to a all-time low of less than 1.3%. Draghi: "Europe faces a choice between paralysis, exit or integration. Exit has been tried. Paralysis is becoming untenable. Integration is our only hope left."
- Following a triple-dip recession and a pandemic, Italian GDP is down 21% from its 2008 peak, back to levels not seen since... 1993. 27 years. This has to be the most depressing chart I have ever posted on Twitter.
- 🇬🇷 The performance of the Greek economy since the trough is just mind-blowing.
- What the ECB could do: 1. Cut rates 2. Do a special SME LTRO 3. Cut the TLTRO rate 4. Increase the tiering multiplier 5. Increase CSPP 6. Increase QE 7. Increase issuer limits 8. Buy senior bank debt 9. Buy ETFs 10. If everything else fails, call Mario back from retirement
- 🇪🇺 *EU PREPARING POWER MARKET EMERGENCY INTERVENTION: VON DER LEYEN
- 🇪🇺 Euro area inflation: the Good (Spain), the Bad (France, Germany), and the Ugly (Italy). So much for an imminent ECB pivot. Forward rates are back to pre-ECB levels.
- Germany in deep political crisis. France strong and stable. Italy growing faster than the UK... but out of World Cup. There’s something wrong with Europe.
