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great chat with @Louis_Ashworth @FTAlphaville what are the big trends and how do we do things differently?
Freya Beamish
2,281 posts
Freya Beamish
@freyabeamish
Chief economist GlobalData TS Lombard
Deal, England
Joined July 2011
- Unlikely that the Fed will get off the hook with a soft landing. We expect a Fed-induced hard landing next year. While not our base case, there is a chance that China breaks first and the Fed is absolved of the responsibility of having to destroy wealth to generate a recession
- thanks @darioperkins for sharing this great paper from @ilzetzki ilzetzki.com/learningbynece… showing that demand shocks can push up productivity growth for firms facing capacity constraints i.e. high-pressure economies. Value is the place to be if you agree with this thesis. 1/n
- Is China headed for a recession? If the desire to manage the currency and prevent depreciation is so strong that M1 growth hardly gets off the ground, RMB depreciation will be minimal, and growth will amount to China’s equivalent of a recession, or even an outright recession.
- Can Beijing really manage the end of the largest property boom in history without ultimately triggering a financial crisis? Probably not, a recession, with Chinese characteristics, is likely. #recession #china
- Yes China's growth was strong in Q1. Release of pent up demand plus frontloading of fiscal stimulus. But pent up demand is much less than it was in DMs. 1. because less Chinese stimulus means less accumulation of wealth over the pandemic through savings 2. because
- BoJ's Bond market group meetings are the best guide to the true pressures the BoJ is facing boj.or.jp/en/paym/bond/m…
- Inflation has the final say after a period of disinflation through H2 2022. The underlying supply-demand mismatch will take longer to work out than short-term trends through H2 will suggest, rest of the world is not safe from stagflation until the Fed is satisfied on inflation.
- well said @dianecoyle1859 UK policymakers are creating self-fulfilling prophecies of supply-side deterioration. Jeremy Hunt and the fiscal headroom fallacy ft.com/content/661aa9… via @ft
- #IMF fin stability report: At prevailing market conditions, IMF staff analysis shows that 45 percent of property developers by assets might not be able to cover their debt obligations with earnings...
- This market carnage ain't done yet. It is becoming clear that a hard landing from the equity market perspective is almost a requirement for controlling inflation. #inflation #bearmarket #equitymarket
- US demand is weakening but not fast enough to bring inflation into range within an acceptable timeframe. Eurasian inflation would sort itself out more quickly, but the mismatch with the US leaves the block exposed to stagflation through currency depreciation
- China's current account surplus is perilously close to zero for an excess savings country!"2018-to-2019 will Expose Asian Imbalances, Hurting GDP Growth" @freyabeamish ow.ly/53NJ30hzB1W #PantheonMacro
