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Eva Vivalt
@evavivalt
Assistant prof @UofT, research on cash transfers and evidence-based decision-making, J-PAL affiliate.
Toronto, ON
Joined March 2012
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    Did you ever wish you could get help with your power calculations? Now you can! EarlyReview.ai will give you estimates of treatment effects based on your early project documents (e.g., pre-analysis plans, registered reports, grant proposals, etc.).
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    We are happy to release the first results of a RCT of a US program that provided $1,000/month unconditionally for 3 years to 1,000 individuals in the treatment group, with a group of 2,000 people receiving $50/month serving as the control. These are sizable transfers. 1/ 🧵
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    Yikes. The World Bank's Doing Business Report was engaging in specification searching, encouraged by those at very high levels, to boost or reduce certain countries' scores. Some quotes from the doc that just landed today. 🧵 1/n
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    Big personal news: Gabriel and I are moving to the University of Toronto! I'll be an assistant professor in the econ department. I'll miss my colleagues at ANU but am very excited for this new chapter. I feel incredibly lucky, especially given the pandemic.
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    Some professional news: I am taking leave from the University of Toronto to serve as the Director of the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford. 1/
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    Replying to @evavivalt
    5) Finally, it’s hard to overstate just how comprehensive the data we gathered was. This was an expensive program, so it’s worth it to gather really good data. Here’s a list of all the topics we covered: 8/
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    Luckily, we collected ex ante forecasts of what researchers expected we would find! (Table 16) 1/2
    KUDOS to authors for this monumental evaluation of Universal Basic Income. This was so carefully done, with a lot of rigor both in the pre-analysis and amount of data collected. The results from *large* increase in income (40%!!) are...mostly in line with econ 101 predictions.
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    Replying to @evavivalt
    This matters because many programs are means-tested, creating a disincentive to work. In our study, any impacts we observe are due to the pure income effect of having more money. 7/
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    Yay! We won a ~$2.5 mil NIH grant to look at the impact of income on child health and well-being. @smilleralert @AlexBartik
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    We recently added several analyses to our paper on the employment effects of a guaranteed income. 🚨 These new analyses include, for the first time, administrative data on income and employment and results for marriage and divorce, among other outcomes. Read on for results! 1/
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    Replying to @evavivalt
    So, what do we find? First, we see a moderate labor supply effect. About 2 percentage points fewer people work in the treatment group than the control group as a result of the transfers. People in the treatment group work about 1.3-1.4 hrs/week less. 13/
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    I haven't known how to share this story, but I do want to get it off my chest, so here goes. It's a story of discrimination. I'm sure everyone has one. Thread:
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    Replying to @evavivalt
    4) The transfers were gifts from non-profit organizations and not taxable. Participants remained eligible for almost all other benefits. Further, the program was targeted at low-income individuals but, once enrolled, participants could earn a high income and still receive $. 6/