Prediction market exchange volume (estimated revenue)
Sunday, Sep 8:
1. @Kalshi : $196 million ($2.6 million)
2. @Polymarket: $51 million* ($0)
3. @cryptocom: $3.6 million** ($72,000)
4. @ForecastEx: $74,000 ($740)
Adhi 🛸
3,347 posts
Adhi 🛸
@eightyhi
- i was the guy MM’ing the economics desk at kalshi for years. you’d be shocked at how little liquidity is actually needed to make economic indicator markets, like CPI, incredibly sharp. i spent a lot of time and energy on my CPI model, and yet i’d regularly get my ass beat bybarrons.com/articles/fed-d… Prediction Markets Can Help the Fed Solve Its Data Problem by Derek Horstmeyer "Typically, the Fed plays a game of back and forth with investors, simultaneously guiding them on where they see rates going but also listening to investors on what their
- i know exactly the trader she’s talking about and i only know him because i was the MM getting absolutely rinsed by him for years. #worthitso apparently a kansas dude with zero finance background is the #1 inflation trader on kalshi 'he's made so much money because he's very good at predicting inflation by reading the news' kansas guy reading news beats hedge funds at their own game
00:00 - This morning, @DraftKings and @FanDuel's most profitable product line is at risk. @Kalshi just filed to list player props and spreads on a regulated exchange - it everything for sports betting economics. And the @CFTC has just 24 hours to do something about it. 🧵
- Replying to @Redistrictwhich of MI, PA, WI, GA, AZ, NM would trump actually win? i don't see it.
- i predict stuff for a living.
01:48One of my strongest POV is that @RobinhoodApp is extremely unlikely to build a prediction market exchange. It’s simply not in their interest or in their DNA. This is what will happen instead: - that's awesome, Tarek, but I'm afraid that $5B price is already stale...!
00:25Kalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others. Since then, we've grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world. And today…Kalshi goes global. 140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool. - New on 50¢ Dollars! @Kalshi just started paying people to keep quotes tight, just like @Polymarket has done for years. It could create a whole new class of “garage‑band” market makers - specialists who provide liquidity in niche topics and actually get paid for it. Read on.
- sportsbooks themselves are going to be the biggest whales on sports prediction markets. the counter I hear about this is that "sportsbooks don't want to hedge, they want the risk". that's true, but you can scale your risk-taking operation far more when you have the ability to
- i’ve heard that this guy is an actual chicago-area trader and straight up was courtsiding on @Kalshidude no way
00:00 - Prediction market exchange volume (est. fee revenue) [sports ratio of volume] Sunday, Sep 28: 1. @Kalshi: $285M ($4.4M) [89%] 2. @Polymarket: $73M ($0) 3. @Novig: $16M ($0) [100%] 4. @cryptocom: $12.5M ($250k) [99%] 5. @SX_Bet: $2M ($0) [100%] 6. @ForecastEx: $204k
- this is, way, WAY bigger news than @Kalshi's new fundraise. you can now trade on Kalshi in 170 countries. order flow from the UK and Australia, the two most sports-betting-pilled countries in the world, mixing in the same liquidity pool and order book. or think of India, whoseKalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others. Since then, we've grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world. And today…Kalshi goes global. 140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool.00:00
- Prediction market exchange volume (est. fee revenue) Saturday, September 10: 1. @Kalshi: $159M ($2.42M) 2. @Polymarket: $44M ($0)* 3. @Novig: $11.2M ($0) 4. @cryptocom: $3.6M ($72k)** 5. @SX_Bet: $1.2M ($0) 6. @ForecastEx: $4,123 ($41.23)
- Prediction market exchange volume (estimated fee revenue) Monday, September 8: 1. @Kalshi: $61M ($691k) 2. @Polymarket $37M* ($0) 3. @Novig: $10.1M ($0) 4. @cryptocom: $2.3M** ($47k) 5. @ForecastEx: $245k ($2.4k) 6.@SXbet2024: $144k ($0)
