Associate Prof of Civic Leadership and Economics at UT Austin. Author of Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy. Catholic wife and mom of 6.
Today at the local park with my 5 kids, I was told I needed a permit to be there with a group of more than 5 people. I said that they were my own kids and he said I still needed a permit!
Not a cop, just a local official of some sort. I go there every week and this was the first time this happened. He didn't kick me out but said to get a permit next time (I will not!)
I have devoted most of my career to studying inflation expectations. And my own thinking has shifted pretty dramatically in the past year or two. Good time for a thread?
1/n
I generally agree with Rudd that there is too much emphasis on expectations as something the Fed can/should directly control or fine-tune. Focusing on price stability and full employment should keep expectations anchored enough.
Why do consumers sometimes overestimate inflation? This is down to their uncertainty: those who aren’t certain tend to round up, and their expectations tend to be higher than actual inflation. This is made worse during crisis periods. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…#EconomicBulletin
"Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations" papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… This is the fastest I've ever written a paper: conceived of on March 5, online survey March 5 and 6, data analyzed March 7, written up March 8. (thread)