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Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
Foreign Minister of Russia, 1990-1996. Member of the State Duma till 2000; then businessman, speaker. Author: The Firebird (memoir), The Caligula Curse (novel).
Washington, DC
amzn.to/3ITAfM5
Joined April 2017
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  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 1, 2022
    I call on all Russian diplomats to resign in protest. Уважаемые дипломаты России, вы профессионалы а не дешёвые пропагандисты. Когда я работал в МИДе, я гордился своими коллегами. Сейчас просто нельзя поддерживать кровавую братоубийственную войну в Украине.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread. To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Feb 25, 2022
    Lavrov, rightfully sanctioned by the US and EU today, was my deputy in the 90s. Used to have my back. Today, I would watch my back if he was behind me.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    2. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine. He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    3. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 29, 2022
    The good news from the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul is not that Putin is suddenly acting in good faith, but that heroic Ukrainian resistance is making him look for off-ramps and diplomatic disguise. A few important lessons in this thread
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    1. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
  • user avatar
    Andrei V Kozyrev
    @andreivkozyrev
    Mar 6, 2022
    Replying to @andreivkozyrev
    To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus: 1. Ukraine’s condition as a country 2. Russian military’s condition 3. The West’s geopolitical condition