Futarchy (@_futarchy) / X

Futarchy

118 posts

Futarchy

@_futarchy

First futarchy on Ethereum

Ethereum

Joined November 2024

Pinned
Futarchy
@_futarchy
Nov 12, 2025
1/ Excited to partner with @SnapshotLabs to bring futarchy market signals directly into Snapshot. Tokenholders and delegates in participating DAOs can now see expected market impact before voting.
Snapshot.eth
@SnapshotLabs
Nov 12, 2025
Now live on Snapshot: Advisory Futarchy, built with @_futarchy and currently running on @Kleros_io's latest proposal. Traditional Futarchy lets markets decide outcomes. Advisory Futarchy lets markets advise while governance decides.
9K
Futarchy reposted
Robin Hanson
@robinhanson
May 21
Imagine I post $X in support of my blog, & if anyone disagrees w/ any claim I make there & posts $Y, & if I don't concede, judge rules who gets $(X+Y-J) where $J is judging fee. What should I call my post?
3.2K
Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Technical problems prevented some traders from making positions for ~6 hours. But the market battle over GIP-150 continues. The "NO" side has now flipped to winning, and those in favor of the proposal can now buy GNO tokens conditional on proposal passing at a ~1% discount.
425
Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Replying to @_futarchy
Links: 📈 futarchy.fi/market?proposa… 🗳️snapshot.box/#/s:gnosis.eth… 📜 forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-150-shou…
242
Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Replying to @_futarchy
Conditional pool prices (both YES and NO) still trade below the proposal's worked-example per-GNO NAV. 48h TWAP window: May 9 17:34 → May 11 17:34 UTC, before the Snapshot vote closes May 12 will be considered the market recommendation. Links below.
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Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Replying to @_futarchy
How the futarchy market works: trade GNO conditional on the proposal's outcome — YES (passes) or NO (fails). If your branch loses, your trade unwinds — you get your money back. Only the winning branch settles at market. The YES/NO spread is the market's estimate of GIP-150's
167
Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Replying to @_futarchy
Today's opposite signals on the proposal: 🗳️ Snapshot vote: ~65% Against 📈 Futarchy market: YES +2% above NO: pricing GNO higher if the proposal passes
175
Futarchy
@_futarchy
May 8
Outside activists want to dismantle GnosisDAO (@gnosis_) treasury. The team is fighting them off. GIP-150 — a one-time pro-rata redemption: GNO for ETH, stables, and a claim on illiquid assets. Redeemed GNO is burned. Vote closes May 12.
1.5K
Futarchy reposted
Snapshot.eth
@SnapshotLabs
Feb 10
@gnosis_ is voting to put @_futarchy's prediction markets on every official governance proposal in a 9-month pilot - joining @Kleros_io and @VeloraDEX. GIP-145 proposes advisory markets on Snapshot showing expected $GNO price impact before voters decide. Proposed by @azsantosk,
3.5K
Futarchy reposted
Clément Lesaege
@clesaege
Jan 22
Prediction market FUD according to brain size.
Robin Hanson
@robinhanson
Oct 4, 2025
Futarchy offers great promise, but also the worrisome scenario of a very competent, and thus durable, world govt tied to mal-valued goals. overcomingbias.com/p/world-govern…
2.1K
Futarchy
@_futarchy
Dec 24, 2025
Replying to @_futarchy
@Marczeller
535
Futarchy
@_futarchy
Dec 24, 2025
Replying to @_futarchy
app.futarchy.fi/markets/0xFb45…
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Futarchy
@_futarchy
Dec 24, 2025
Replying to @_futarchy
6/ We therefore invite all those against the proposal to buy AAVE tokens at a discount, conditional on the proposal not passing (NO market). END.
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