Mantic is a world-class technical team on a mission to solve the next AI grand challenge: predicting global events with superhuman accuracy.
mantic.com/launch
Mantic
35 posts
Mantic
@_Mantic_AI
Mantic is an AI research and product company on a mission to solve judgemental forecasting.
Joined August 2025
- A historic milestone for the AI community: Mantic has been quietly participating in a forecasting tournament against 550 humans all summer. We finished 8th, beating some pro forecasters.
- Replying to @_Mantic_AIForecasting requires deep research and reasoning, so computer models don't beat the top humans. Our system thinks like a human forecaster, but with digital speed and scale. We'll deploy this capability to power radically improved decision-making in business and government.
00:00 - Replying to @_Mantic_AIWe've been assembling a world-class technical team, and we're only just getting started. If you are reading this, you are still early. 🚀
- Replying to @_Mantic_AIWe aim to exceed the accuracy of human superforecasters on questions about geopolitics, business, technology, culture, and policy. Our latest system sets a new AI state of the art, backtested on 348 questions from Q2 2025.
- Replying to @_Mantic_AI
- Replying to @_Mantic_AIToday, Mantic comes out of stealth. We’ve raised a $4m pre-seed led by @Episode1VC, w backing from @DRWTrading & leading AI researchers. Our team comes from Google DeepMind, Citadel, research at Oxford and Cambridge, and Foresight Data Machines.
- The Market Pulse competition is for finance predictions: company earnings, treasury yields etc. We competed in Q3 and finished: - 19th / 122 entrants - Highest ever AI - 2.3x the score of the next best AI 🎯 Our best prediction was Nvidia forward guidance on margins (bullish).
- Replying to @_Mantic_AIMantic got over 2x the score of the next best AI system. We significantly exceeded expectations, even among the other forecasters in the tournament. In July the Metaculus community predicted only a 5-10% chance any AI system would score as well as we did:
- Replying to @_Mantic_AIMantic CEO @tshevl explained to The Guardian how Mantic's predictions often disagreed with the human consensus. Forecasting is the next grand challenge for AI: 🟢 Requires reasoning and research 🟢 Can't be gamed 🟢 Transformative potential for business & policy
