Analysis results of 25,000+ lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan till Feb 18: epidemiological characteristics and non-pharmaceutical Intervention effects. The key results are summarized below and hope they are useful for the strategies in US and others
Xihong Lin
2,070 posts
Professor of @HarvardBiostats & @HarvardStats, (Bio)statistics,Data Science,Genetics Genomics,Epidemiology,Health, Education,COVID19 analysis,Views are all mine
- The Harvard & MIT lawsuit seeks a temporary restraining order & preliminary and permanent injunctive relief to bar the U.S. DHS & ICE from enforcing federal guidelines barring international students attending colleges & universities offering only online courses from staying in USHarvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology filed a lawsuit in District Court in Boston Wednesday morning against the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ow.ly/QY2z50AsJX1
- Very pleased to report that our JAMA paper on public health interventions with the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan based on analysis of 32,000+ lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan till Mar 8 appeared on April 10. See below for a summary.
- Our paper “Reconstruction of full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan” is online in Nature. We showed two key features of COVID: High transmissibility (R0=3.5) & high covertness(up to 87% undetected cases), estimated the chance of resurgence(1/n)
- Replying to @XihongLin1. In the absence of intervention (before 1/23), the effective reproductive number R=3.8>>1, and dropped to R=0.3 after the massive intervention on Feb 1(centralized quarantine and treatment of all confirmed and suspected cases). This intervention worked.
- Replying to @XihongLinThanks to the hard work of all my co-authors at Tongji SPH in Wuhan on finishing this paper in a short time window. The gained knowledge benefits US and other countries in our strategy development. It was a great honor to work with them
- An amazing story of a giant Arianna Rosenbluth, the woman who co-developed and first implemented the Metropolis algorithm, the basis of MCMC. She is the 5th female PhD student graduated from Harvard. She died of COVID (1/n). #InternationalWomensDay
- Replying to @XihongLin4. About 60% of infected cases were estimated to be un-ascertained, i.e,. they scattered in the community and could infect others. This means increasing the testing capacity for early diagnosis is critically important.
- Replying to @XihongLin3. Family transmission is common. Quarantine-at-home between 1/23-2/1 helped and did not work effectively (R=1.35>1), as family members and close contacts may be infected and might affect the neighborhood communities, e.g., going shopping. Centralized quarantine is critical.
- I am very honored to be inducted to the National Academy of Medicine, and look forward to contributing to NAM.Xihong Lin @XihongLin of @HarvardBiostats & @HarvardChanSPH has been inducted to the NAM! Congratulations! #NAMmtg
- I am very flattered by this honor. Thanks go to many, especially Marvin Zelen for serving as a wonderful role model for many of us. He has shaped the field of biostatistics, and has also influenced and helped many statisticians, especially junior researchers. Be like Marvin.Dr. @XihongLin will receive the prestigious 2022 Marvin Zelen Leadership Award in Statistical Science! A world-renowned biostatistician, her transformative ideas, innovative vision & tireless leadership have moved the field forward. Career highlights here: hsph.me/zelenaward
- Replying to @XihongLin5. Healthcare workers and elderly people are at a much higher risk of being infected. The risk of severity increases with age, and elderly people are at a much higher risk of becoming severe (RR=3 for 60-79 and RR=5 for 80+).
- I am very honored, grateful and humbled to be elected to @theNASciences yesterday. I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to many colleagues who have so generously supported me over years and my students, postdocs and collaborators whose talent and creativity have inspired meThrilled to hear that my colleague @XihongLin was just elected to @theNASciences!! Congratulations, Xihong! This honor is so very well deserved!
- Replying to @XihongLin7. Children's infection risk is much lower than adults, but the risk increased with time.







