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Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | @CSIS | Senior Fellow for Military Studies @LowyInstitute | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Australia
Joined December 2017
Posts
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    It has been over 4 years since I published my first book, “War Transformed”. I will always be grateful to @USNIBooks for taking a chance on this first time author. In 2024, they also published “The War for Ukraine”. More news very soon on my next book.
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    It is too early to ascertain the method of attack and the range of implications of this attack on the Kerch Bridge. It is certainly a punch in the face for Putin on his birthday. A couple of thoughts however in this short (for me) thread. 1/9 🧵
    Closer look at the collapsed road span of the Crimean bridge
    00:00
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    The battle of Kharkiv has been won by #Ukraine, with Russian forces withdrawing to the north & east. Today, analysis on what is next for Ukraine’s military as it exploits a faltering Russian eastern offensive. 1/25
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    Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵
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    The last 48 hours have seen some stunning battlefield developments in #Ukraine. Ukrainian operations in the northeast continue to exploit its penetration of Russian defences. 1/18 🧵
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    Back in May, I examined Ukraine’s military strategy in a thread that I informally called ‘The Ukrainians are Masters of 21st Century War”. Today, an update on the Ukrainian approach - the "strategy of corrosion". 1/25 🧵
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    There is a lot going on in #Ukraine at the moment. The macro story is that Russia appears to have lost the initiative at every level. But there is also an interesting story to be told about Ukrainian campaign planning. 1/24
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    Three days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen Russian advances in the north, south and east. Ground gained in the north has been particularly costly for Russian forces. My 3rd set of observations, noting the ongoing abundance of ambiguity. 1/24
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    The last 48 hours have seen quite a lot happening in #Ukraine. While the southern offensive continues, the Ukrainian operations around Kharkiv have achieved a significant penetration of Russian defences on the Kupiansk-Izium axis. What might this mean? 1/25
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    “Ukraine cannot be safe or rebuild its economy until Crimea is out of Russian hands.” The (strong) case for why #Ukraine must take back #Crimea - and why the West must help, from @Andriypzag at @ForeignAffairs
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    Lots of reports currently about Ukrainian advances in #Kherson and #Luhansk. Few have been officially confirmed. However, we can draw a couple of things from these ongoing campaigns. 1/17 🧵
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    Putin hasn’t taken Ukraine because he can’t. Because of Ukrainian courage & resilience. To suggest “not taking all of Ukraine” is a Russian concession is ludicrous and morally corrupt.
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    The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost one week into execution. As the Russians slowly but surely redeploy forces to seal off the breach in their border and attempt to push the Ukrainians back into #Ukraine, it is worth pondering the options the Ukrainians might have once
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    Replying to @WarintheFuture
    9/ I am sure we will learn more details in the coming hours and days. But this ‘smoking incident’ is sure to be linked to other events in Ukraine’s overall military strategy. A bad month for Russia just keeps getting worse. Good. End.