$SPY - $1B+ intraday trade. Only the second time that's happened in 2024. The last time it happened before 2024 was the 2022 low. Before that was the 2021 high.
My point being that four of the last four times this happened, it marked an important swing high or swing low.
$AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA - 401K buyers just took on an awful lot of very expensive stocks at or near their respective ATH.
Just in time for Moody's to cut their outlook. I guess we know what the hurry was about today. Quick check of the playbook and I see:
Step 1 - Let a bond
$SPY, $VIX - Lots to cover tonight. Today was an unusual and important day from a positioning perspective.
These three $SPY ETFs ( $IVW, $IVV, $VOO ) and $SVIX, are all very concerning. The combination of these prints doesn't have to be a ring-the-bell-top scenario. But if
$QQQ, $SQQQ, $TQQQ - More on my theory.
When it comes to leveraged trades, there's a pattern that often unfolds.
At/near lows:
--
1 - Build position in the underlying as price declines. Create a base. Set a low.
2 - Short rally, then pullback.
3 - Add long leverage on the
$SQQQ - I have a theory, but I want to think some more.
In any event, this is a pretty important trade. Largest since August 28. Ranks 35th. $TQQQ also came in, albeit less emphatically. Also the largest since August 28th.
Fits with the Godzilla $QQQ trade.
$TLT - Today we got the largest trade since inception.
12.1M shares @ $87.50
$1.05B
105x avg size.
I'm going to steer clear of any narrative or subjective interpretation of what the trade "means," and just stick to positioning. I'm not a macro bro, bruh.
I'm also going to
$NVDA - Friday's close gave us its largest trade cluster since inception. It was 2.5x larger than its next largest cluster back on May 30. In total, $19.7B of inventory changed hands across 56 trades, almost entirely on dark pools.
Before I go any further, I will address the
$MSFT - On Dec 16, 2022, we got the largest trade since inception. It was a $7.5B trade. Eye watering.
A few months passed, tra-la-la, and now suddenly price is 14% higher.
But then today, the #18 ranked trade printed at the open and the #4 trade printed at the close, right
$MSFT - $9B at the close. That's its largest trade ever, and eclipses the previous largest ever that stood at $7.5B. It's more than twice as large as #4 ($4B) which printed near the 2021 high.
OPEX and rebalancing surely played into this size, there's no denying that. But
$MSFT - Today we got the largest trade since inception. $9.2B printed in the closing auction. That trade was also part of its largest one-day cluster since inception. $16.2B across 69 trades.
"OPEX doesn't matter."
"OPEX should be ignored, it's just rebalancing."
$SVIX (1x inverse $VIX futures) - The largest trade since inception arrived this morning at ATH. Institutions are positioning today while nobody is looking. #1 trades at or near ATH are almost always selling.
384K @ $33.30. That's your line.
Price is currently trading
Quarterly OPEX edition. 3rd largest OPEX by my count. Lots given for free in my weekly stack but the real juice is for subs-only. 300โฅ๏ธ on this post and I'll release this week's whole stack for everyone, our secret, frens only.
$TQQQ - 1.2M shares at the high. Largest trade since November. 44x avg size.
$SQQQ - 3M shares at the low. Largest trade since March. 50x avg size.
Both ranked in the top-100.
Two disproportionately large, directionally-bearish trades, appearing at relative extremes. In