Pinned
(1) New Working Paper: the fundamental driver of growth in modern economies, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), is linear, not exponential.
This is a paper I did not expect to write...
Thomas Philippon
13.5K posts
Thomas Philippon
@ThomasPHI2
Economist. Dad. Rock climber. Author of The Great Reversal.
NYC, Paris
Joined February 2014
- Germany’s Greek crisis. 11 years ago Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis because of: - irresponsible fiscal policy - bad luck Today Germany faces a geopolitical crisis because of: - irresponsible energy policy - bad luck
- We need a centrist rebellion. Wokism was insufferable. trumpisn is 10 times worse. The trouble with us centrists is that we give people the benefit of the doubt. It’s also our greatest quality. We are aware that we don’t know everything. But we also know BS when we see it.The woke are still utterly insufferable.
- Easy. The EUEconomists and pol scientists study all kinds of things--but do they have an answer/hypothesis why is the outcome of democracy so different in South Africa and Poland?
- A deeper issue: what on earth was the IRS doing all this time? And wasn’t there a DA in Manhattan during the past 15 years?President Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016, and nothing in 10 of the prior 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made. Read the takeaways from our exclusive look at decades of Trump’s tax records. nyti.ms/3czAqNn
- Replying to @ThomasPHI2Greece’ s bad luck was a global financial crisis triggered in the US housing market. Germany’s bad luck came in the form of erratic decisions from an entrenched tyrant. But, as German officials liked to remind their Greek counterparts, bad luck is no excuse for bad policy.
- Replying to @ThomasPHI2And the costs are now born by other countries as Germany’s dependence becomes a constraint on Europe’s policy making.
- Replying to @ThomasPHI2Germany did the same with its energy policy. It was a bet that the gaz would keep flowing. Germany is depended on gaz inflows just as Greece was on financial ones. It refused to pay the cost of insurance in the form of diversification.
- I lost a friend yesterday. Economics lost one of its brightest mind. RIP Emmanuel Farhi.
- Exemple parfait d’incompétence et de malhonnêteté intellectuelle La somme des mesures qu’il propose c’est quelques milliards au max Pour faire 120 milliards il faut toucher aux retraites mais ça fait peur à notre petit Éric avec sa tronçonneuse en plastiqueNotre loi tronçonneuse, c’est : - La suppression de 25 % des normes - La suppression de 1/3 des agences - La suppression des régions, des métropoles et des départements ➡️Objectifs : - Une baisse dépense publique de 120 milliards par an - 600 milliards en 5 ans -
00:00 - The EU must impose a tariff on Russian energy imports. NOW! Why a tariff? Because, unlike an embargo, it does not have to start at 100% and it can be adjusted. That should defeat Germany's shameful opposition to an embargo. And it sets the stage for credible further actions.
- I have seen this graph many times. Its basically wrong. It’s all about « real ». If you use PPP you see the opposite. The real puzzle is why PPP and NIPA deflators disagree so much. Working on it. Hope to have an answer soon stay tuned.What explains this?
- Replying to @ThomasPHI2Greek politicians were free riding on the credibility of the euro that allowed cheap and apparently unlimited borrowing… for a while. They bet that market finance would keep flowing indefinitely. It was cheap. But it was risky.
- (1/N): Economic Responses to the #coronavirus First, some nowcasting: where are we? This will be the steepest recession in recorded history: a double digit (10%, 20%?) decline in output in a quarter or two. It may or may not last beyond 6 months.
