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Some thoughts on possible Russian nuclear signaling, and how to isolate what matters from bluster, propaganda and really the bad journalism out there
First: Listen to what the US and NATO says about Russian nuclear posture. As late as today, the US have said still no changes
Thord Are Iversen
25.2K posts
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank.
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst.
- The Norwegian Chief of Defence: "We are running out of time" "There's a window now that might last one, two, maybe three years" "We don't know what will happen with Russia in three years time"
- Looks like the Finns caught Eagle S red handed and acted accordingly. Will be interesting to see if there are any wider implications from this incident as Eagle S is a shadow fleet tanker.
- Denmark and Norway jointly donates 8000 155 shells to Ukraine. "Norway donates the shells, while Denmark donates the associated fuzes, propellant bags and primer cartridges." The Norwegian part of the package comes from Armed Forces stocks.
- 1/3 A thread on a Sunday: After some deliberation, I have decided to leave the anonymous cover and start writing under my full name. I am Thord Are Iversen, a former Navy officer that have been struggling with chronic illness for close to a decade.
- Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR: "NORSAR have detected a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 (local time in Finland) on 8th October 2023. This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."
- Replying to @HamWa07 and @selshevnerenYes, prohibited by law. Civilian airlines have to inform passengers that photographing the military side of Evenes illegal on every flight. It was done on this flight too, in English and Norwegian.
- 1/ Rather direct message by the Norwegian Foreign Minister in Kyiv today. "None of us does enough." "We all need to do more, we need to do better. We need to think more strategically, about how we can help Ukraine to win and hence Russia to loose"
- Replying to @The_Lookout_N6/6 Western media bears a large responsibility now. Click-bait, fear-mongering, retransmitting propaganda and sloppy work should be avoided The way to inform and prepare the public is through calm, open debate based on facts, featuring those who know what they are talking about
- The first Leo2 documented lost and we will see more destroyed Western equipment in the days and weeks ahead. This means the West need to keep the donations going. To those dooming, some of us have tried to say this offensive would be hard, bloody work. It's still early.#Ukraine: For the first time, a Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank was destroyed by the Russian army during the recent Ukrainian attack near Novopokrovka, #Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
00:00 - "Test of dispersal concept for F-35" Royal Norwegian Air Force F-35s in the underground/mountain complex at Bardufoss Air Base. Photo: Martin Mellquist / Forsvaret
- Here is an attempt to create an illustrative map on where we have Army level concentrations, currently in the process of moving to jump-off positions near the border. This is my personal assessment as of 1200z today, February 13th.
- New Norwegian donation, in close cooperation with the UK: 8 MLRS and 3 ARTHUR counter battery radars. As I read the press-release, 8 Norwegian mothballed M270s are going to the UK, to enable them to donate from their stocks to Ukraine.
- There are nuclear related rumors circulating this evening. For possible changes in Russian non-strategic nuclear posture, I do think Washington DC, Brussels or some other Western capital would tell us if something was stirring. Don't listen to fear-mongering rumors.










