Tesla is in discussion with a major automaker about licensing FSD. This is not surprising in the wake of failed efforts like ArgoAI at Ford. Autonomy is hard, it requires vast amounts of data, and I believe many automakers will fail to achieve it on their own.
Tasha Keeney
14.5K posts
Director of Investment Analysis @ARKInvest | Direct Research on Autonomous Tech, Robotics, & Embodied AI (🚗🚜✈️🤖). Disclosure arkinv.st/2rxmMRG
- Removing autonomous driving & any form of ride-hail, which we believe will drive >60% of Tesla's value over the next 5 years, our 2026 price target would become roughly $500/share (post split) based on EVs alone, more than a 4X increase from current price.
- Tesla plans to start ride-hail next year and already testing capability in California. This is huge! At 10/10, we heard unsupervised FSD next year, but this is a confirmation that they can start a ride-hail service as well. Autonomous ride-hail should unlock a $10T+ opportunity
- The Hertz deal could offer free advertising for Tesla and the opportunity for a partner in robotaxi fleet management/maintenance down the line.
- Our updated Tesla model is now out! ark-invest.com/articles/valua… Autonomous driving likely will be one of the most life-changing AI unlocks in history, and quite meaningful for Tesla shareholders:
- 1/ Our latest Tesla price target is out! $2,000 per share in 2027. Check it out! ark-invest.com/articles/arks-… Similar to last year, we believe autonomy will represent a significant portion of Tesla’s future enterprise value.
- From our last year's Big Ideas report, but still very relevant today: Autonomous vehicles could be one of the most economically impactful innovations in history .
- When Elon says Tesla is the only automaker that could sell cars for zero margin today and makeup for it in autonomy earnings later, here's why that matters. Autonomous mobility platform operators will be a Goliath in the future auto value chain, worth much more than OEMs alone.
- And so it starts... I think the supercharging network is the gateway drug for other Tesla platforms. Licensing autopilot and FSD next?
- 1/ Pay attention to this. Clearly today's reporting and subsequent market reaction was yet another sign that I think many analysts are not factoring in the autonomy opportunity into Tesla price expectations.Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8
- Tesla has been testing a ride-hail service for ~1 year. This is a monumental step forward. Read more in our newsletter.Tesla is launching a ride-hail service in 2025, which we believe will unlock a multi-trillion dollar robotaxi opportunity. Read our thoughts on Tesla’s Q3 Earnings below! ark-invest.com/newsletters/is…
- Excited for 10/10! Most looking forward to software and app updates for the Tesla robotaxi platform. While the Cybercab should enable a lower cost structure, I don't expect it to be a bottleneck for robotaxi launch. How will launch work? My thoughts:









