There is no team who should be bigger sellers of talent right now than Miami. 28th in 2026 cap space. Biggest contracts (Tyreek, Tua) need offloading. Roster requires multiple cycles of unspooling bc it’s been so min-maxed to fit McDaniel and Tua.
Why Trevor Lawrence's ascension in year 2 should surprise no-one: a Thread about a future superstar and the flaws of purely statistical-based analysis:
or, Why I can't get enough money down on the Jags.
(note: I've watched every snap, and his bad plays several times)
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I voted yesterday. Sharing my thoughts because I think it’s healthy in our political system for people to be open about their political choices. You’re welcome to disagree.
Thread since I don’t pay for this:
The upside case for Justin Fields: a thread on why I can’t join the masses fading the Bears after watching every snap of his rookie season.
In short, he doesn’t need a strong supporting cast if the coaches play it right.
Here’s why:
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My thoughts on the Super Bowl, including 3 angles that favor Kansas City and 1 angle that favors Philadelphia.
Ultimately, I don't think the market is correctly pricing this game and I think the Chiefs should be favored. Final score prediction at the end.
A thread:
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Lots of talk about "public" bet %, "trap" lines, "Vegas knows," etc.
I have some thoughts on this. Smart bettors/bookies - correct me if I'm wrong.
Thread time:
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If you think the MVP should go to someone who isn’t the most valuable player, fine.
But if you think an RB is the actual most valuable player you do not understand the game of football and you reject basic, obvious conclusions from available data.
If you ignore the playoffs, ignore the 5 previous seasons of Mahomes/Reid, judge KC only by regular season results and ignore how much of the outlier-level underperformance in a limited sample size can be attributed to drops (most in the NFL) and low-percentage outcomes that
Does strength of schedule matter?
The Eagles have dominated a bad schedule this season, but how does that impact the Super Bowl handicap?
My thoughts in a data-based thread:
[1/19]
Transparency time.
This season has been really, really rough for me.
After Week 10, my posted plays to date are 49-59-2 for -22.66 units on the season.
Privately, it’s slightly worse.
I came into the season with a lot of confidence, based on the robustness of my process, the
“How are you avoiding conflicts of interest here?”
“Well we are posting everything on the social media platform I own if you want to check out what we are doing!”