Crypto will continue to be volatile, but as a paradigm it is the future.
Scott Minerd
1,659 posts
Scott Minerd
@ScottMinerd
March 21, 1959 - December 21, 2022
- Crypto investors be warned: be prepared for a volatile holiday weekend.
- With great sadness, we mourn the passing of Scott Minerd, our leader, colleague, and friend.
- A technician's rule to remember with Bitcoin: "Every time a support level is tested it becomes weaker." That would mean support for $30,000 may soon fail.
- We are experiencing the end game of the great debt super cycle. As the private sector has become increasingly over-levered, the baton is being passed to the public sector where resources are so strained that the printing press has become the last resort.
- The #Fed is trying to do something impossible—not shock the market while being an aggressive #inflation fighter.
- The possibility of an attack on the global payments system is one of the biggest exogenous risks to the stability of the financial system.
- Look for more declines in crypto as Bitcoin breaks through support. Next likely support level is $20,000.
- After four consecutive monthly declines, the leading economic indicators signal that #recession is on the way. You’ve been warned.
- Fed minutes much more hawkish than I'd expected. #Fed seems intent on raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet simultaneously. Clearly the recipe for a financial accident.
- Bitcoin's parabolic rise is unsustainable in the near term. Vulnerable to a setback. The target technical upside of $35,000 has been exceeded. Time to take some money off the table.
- Since 1960, P/Es have trended lower when #inflation is higher. With YoY core PCE now at 4.6% and S&P500 trading at ~19x, we should see stocks fall another 20% by mid-October…if historical seasonals mean anything.
- Stocks have clearly topped the recent uptrend. Now we find out if this is 1930 all over again.