Sander Tordoir (@SanderTordoir) / X

Sander Tordoir

6,535 posts

Sander Tordoir

@SanderTordoir

Chief economist @CER_EU. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | institutional development of EMU | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ecb (+ @IMFNews) & @Worldbank

Joined March 2014

Pinned
Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
May 20
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new paper, @Brad_Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
I wrote a new piece in foreign policy. The US's postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over – and may even turn adversarial. But Europe has an overlooked trump card: when it comes to manufacturing Europe blows the US out of the water. 1/x
Heavy Industry Is Europe’s Trump Card
From foreignpolicy.com
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Aug 10, 2024
This @TheEconomist chart should really keep European and German policymakers awake at night. China’s state-directed investment in ‘high-quality, productive’ forces is leading to massive overproduction that will reverberate in global markets for manufactured goods. 1/
1M
Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 5, 2025
The German fiscal package is massive (10-20% GDP). - 500 billion 10Y fund for public investment - All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake. - Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment. Germany is back - economically +militarily. 1/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
For European leaders, meeting this historical moment means preparing to defend their national interests on their own. Merz, Macron (+Starmer) seem on the ball Their trump card: Europe collectively outproduces the United States in steel, vehicles, ships, and civil aircraft. 2/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
The stagnant EU economy has fueled calls for Europe to prioritize high-tech sectors over its industrial base. But this is a false dichotomy. Europeans should not fetisishe US big tech too much: it's profit rich but employment poor. 4/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
EU countries also pay less to service their debts than the United States. This gives the EU the industrial heft and financial firepower to support Ukraine and embark on domestic rearmament as President Trump abandons Kyiv and NATO. 3/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Sep 9, 2024
Draghi’s strategic economic growth agenda for the EU does not disappoint. It channels aspects of the thinking of Jean Monnet (EU defense integration), Jacques Delors (EU single market) and Bidenomics (cleantech / economic security). But above all, Draghi’s own vision. 🧵
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 31, 2025
Did anyone have this on their bingo card? Norway is edging towards a new EU membership bid, as one of Europe’s richest countries ponders how to survive in Trump's world. Perma-eurobears could never explain why countries continue to accede to the EU 1/2
Why Norway is edging towards a fresh EU membership bid
From ft.com
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
Manufacturing employs more people (30M v 13), and plays a far greater role in the EU economy than in the United States (16.4% GDP vs 11). And there are three reasons why maintaining Europe’s manufacturing edge is critical not just for its growth, but also for its security. 5/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
First, manufacturing drives the little productivity growth the EU generates, Airbus, machine-building (ASML!), even cars, aren't things to toss away. To fund defense spending, the EU will need the income created by its industrial sector to keep debt levels sustainable. 6/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
Second, Europe's strong industrial production is a precondition for Europe to rearm quickly. Supply chains for modern industry double up as defense supply chains. The US itself serves as a warning of the risks of letting them etiolate (just look at EU vs US shipbuilding). 7/x
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Jan 16, 2025
In a new study, @Brad_Setser and I unpack how badly Germany’s trading relationship with China has backfired. And how a new government might help its industry weather the 2nd China shock. With terrific accompanying reporting in Handelsblatt and FT. 1/
How German industry can survive the second China shock
From cer.eu
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Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoir
Mar 8, 2025
Replying to @SanderTordoir
Third, even as Europe aims to catch up with the US in advanced tech, its comparative advantage in the transatlantic relationship will continue to lie in manufacturing. The EU has long run a surplus in manufacturing trade with the US (importing services/tech back). 8/x
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