Pinned
The long-simmering global contest for power & influence has just erupted into a full blown war.
Here are some observations (not projections) of the early casualties 🧵
Simon Mikhailovich
14.8K posts
Simon Mikhailovich
@S_Mikhailovich
Contrarian, entrepreneur, sailor. TBR manages global private bullion reserves; TBS helps buy & store bullion in the US.
Independence, Endurance, Scarcity
- The 1929 crash did not cause the Great Depression; it was the depression that caused the crash. Same in 2000 & 2008 - by the time markets crashed, crises in tech & real estate had been well underway. And now, another crisis is all around us.
- Feels like something big in the works. All these "in person" consultations can't be coincidental: Putin & top ministers visited Belarus Medvedev visited Xi w/Putin's "personal message" Putin attending Defence Ministry's board meeting Zelensky visiting DC Something is up..
- Gold is surging on the coming monetary reset but most think they have "missed the trade." The real miss is mistaking revaluation for a trade. Early days...
- We are living through change that hasn't happened in 500 yrs. For the first time since the 1400s (the age of discovery), the collective West does not enjoy overwhelming military, industrial & fin/econ superiority over the collective "global south." Expect the unexpected.
- On the way to JFK, I asked the cab driver what he thought about the economy. He proceeded to explain how the US used the USD reserve status to expropriate foreign wealth & export inflation abroad to hide the US econ. decay. If a NY cabbie gets it, we are in the late innings.
- Replying to @S_MikhailovichRIP the rule of law: Canada's freeze of fin accts/wallets & confiscation of Russian gov & private assets undermined the foundation of Western law & finance - pres. of innocence, due process, basic property rights, etc. We took a wrecking ball to the trust in our system.
- If gold just beat its 1980 record high in real terms, how much nominal upside is left before 45 years' worth of money & credit creation are fully priced in? Asking for a friend.Gold Surpasses Inflation-Adjusted Record High Set in 1980
- Tracking core inflation, excluding food and energy, is like tracking core health, excluding cancer and heart disease.
- So, let's get this straight: if a washing machine doubles in price, we call it inflation but if a stock doubles while the earnings don't, we call it "multiple expansion." And when the same happens to a lot of stocks? We call it a bull market. Something's off here...
- Those who think they missed out on gold are missing the point. If a ship goes down, those who paid more for their lifeboat aren't any less happy than those who paid less.
- The SEC just raised "accredited investor" asset threshold by 10% to $1.1m. Having $1m no longer implies sufficient sophistication, whereas having $1.1m does. Right...
- Some say USD's #1 reserve currency status is ending; others say there is no alternative. How about this: As USD gets competition, marginal USD demand declines & borrowing costs rise. It only sounds lukewarm - higher costs would be a disaster at the current USD debt levels.
- Today's Fed is our version of the 1980s Soviet Politburo. They say & do whatever may help sustain the unsustainable. That's the game. There is no other.
