This is going straight into the notes of my principles of economics class this Fall.
Ricardo Reis
3,040 posts
Ricardo Reis
@R2Rsquared
- ** MMT is the new supply-side economics Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues. 1/13
- * A take on the economics of the virus * [1/12] The first-order effect is a drastic fall in labor (L) for one quarter (hopefully no more). GDP doesn’t fall from trees, less L means less Y. Inevitably. Only a small fraction of labor at work can be substituted by labor from home.
- *** Monetizing the debt When a country faces a large sudden expense with strains on economy and financial sector, the government massively borrows. Debt markets can't absorb new debt, so the central bank steps in. Is debt being monetized and will inflation soon follow? [1/12]
- *** For Europe, more is at stake today One week of economic sanctions is not enough to assess their full impact. But it has been enough time to see they are not enough to stop the war. The next step is clear: European countries should stop buying Russian oil and gas on Monday🧵
- *** The original sin of QE (and QT) QE policies, adopted by the most central banks in the last 15 years, suffered from a sin at birth. This came back to bite this Thursday in the UK. Confusingly, there are three distinct policies that go under the name of QE. 🧵 [1/15]
- ** The “macro” view on 2021 inflation Since March 21, I've given many public lectures on inflation. All of them included the slide below (most recently at the Jahnsson prize lecture) Tldr: every macro theory of inflation correctly predicted the high inflation that we have seen🧵
- ** The burst of high inflation in 2021-22: How and Why? I just released a paper based on several talks I’ve given over many months (starting with Markus Academy @MarkusEconomist and ending with @BIS_org) on why monetary policy did not stop inflation rising in 2021-22 🧵
- 🇵🇹 3 razões para a estagnação: -impostos excessivos -má alocação de capital -empresas zombie Fantástica entrevista a @R2Rsquared, um colosso do nosso país.
00:00 - ** Blaming the ECB for an Italian debt crisis? As the ECB (finally!) raised rates to curb inflation it announced a new bond-buying program. If that fails and an Italian debt crisis follows, is the ECB to blame? Some rough back-of-the-envelope numbers on 🇮🇹 debt fundamentals… 🧵
- Why didn’t electrical engineers forecast the Iberian electricity crisis?
- *** Inflation and wages A long time ago, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler and Argia Sbordone noted: with sticky prices, inflation is expected to accelerate when marginal costs are temporarily low. Intuitively, costs will rise back, and as they do, firms will raise prices. 🧵1/12
- My new book is out for sale! With @MarkusEconomist, 10 self-contained chapters, each introducing a macro-finance concept, and applying it to two historical crises.Explore the complexities of economic crises with A Crash Course on Crises, a groundbreaking book by @MarkusEconomist & @R2Rsquared. With cutting-edge research & case studies, it takes readers toward understanding economic instability. Out now! hubs.ly/Q01SyvG_0 #EconTwitter
- **** An ABC recovery People discussing whether it is going to be a V, U, L, ... recession. I say neither. Sticking to the alphabet, it will be an ABC recovery. De-trended (and smoothed) GDP will take the shape in this picture:
