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Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews; Author of War and Power (Summer 2025) penguin.co.uk/books/461613/w…
Scotland, Boston and Sicily (whenever possible)
Joined February 2015
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    Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive).
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    Was just talking with a NATO officer about the Russian Army and asked him how long it would take the Finnish Army to seize St Petersburg. He said, ‘not long, only problem they’d face is that the Poles would get there first.’
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    A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar
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    One of the most remarkable things of the last 9 months is how many Americans seem to believe the President is all powerful and Congress has no say. Actually Congress has been ineffective by choice. It has immense power if it had the courage to use it.
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    My whole life’s work has gone up in smoke….
    "Pearl Harbor was an inside job"
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    I’m still dumbfounded how easy it was for Putin to coopt the Republican Party through Trump. This is extraordinary. One of the two ruling parties of the most powerful country in the world, doing the bidding of a genocidal dictator. Don’t really know how to process this.
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    Hi folks, never thought I would have reached this point, but I’m finally thinking this is it for Twitter while Musk owns it. In the last few days he’s been whipping up anti immigrant feeling and he is now mocking a people fighting for their lives against a genocidal dictatorship.
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    I hope people understand what we are seeing here. 1) Trump and Putin are preparing a common plan to dictate to Ukraine. 2) Ukraine will surprise them (at least Trump) by refusing. 3) The War will continue. 4) The role of Europe will be decisive.
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    I certainly would listen to Elon Musk more if, instead of calling for unneeded referendum in Ukraine, he bothered to call for free and fair elections in Russia.
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    Sometimes we need to take a breath and realize what we are seeing here. The Ukrainians, using NATO equipment for only a few months, and without air superiority, are trying (and maybe succeeding) in driving back what was considered to be one of the world's greatest militaries.
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    Big winners of the night so far: Biden, Ukraine, non-MAGA Republicans. Big losers: Trump, Putin, Elon Musk.
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    So Musk had a chance to shorten the war, and chose not to.
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    The Ukrainian move to draw Russian forces into Kherson is clearly one of the great strategic moves of the war. It brought some of the best Russian units into Kherson where they cant be supplied and are being methodically attrited. And made the Russians thin the line in Kharkiv.
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    The Irish, famous for their history of never emigrating….
    An Irish man told stunned Ukrainian refugees: ‘We had wars here but we didn’t leave our country’ irishtimes.com/life-style/peo… via @IrishTimesLife