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Happy to share that my next book, about the war in Afghanistan, is available for preorder now:
Paul D. Miller
12.3K posts
Paul D. Miller
@PaulDMiller2
I tweet about national security, politics, religion, my kids, and movies. Afghan vet, former NSC staffer. Author of polemical whirlwinds.
- As Afghanistan collapses, I see a few myths taking root. I'd like to respond to some of them.
- I’m seeing a lot of “if we don’t stop Putin now, he’ll invade Estonia/Poland/all Europe just like Hitler.” The German military in WWII had something like 18 million troops. Russia today has 1.3 million, the best parts of which are stalled out in Ukraine. Relax people.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"Our presence was unsustainable." The US presence was tiny, affordable, and low-risk. Few US soldiers were in harm's way. There was no significant antiwar movement at home. The $$ is way lower than the 2010 peak.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"That the Afghans are collapsing so fast now means it was always a failure and would never succeed." You underestimate the morale-crippling effects of the US rapid withdrawal. Till now Afghans could reasonably bank on a future w/ our help. No more. That explains the collapse.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"They have to take responsibility for their own country." True. But you can't expect a drowning man to suddenly know how to swim while you reel in the life preserver he'd been clinging to.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"We screwed up the past 20 years. Time to go." Yes we screwed up. I conclude that instead of leaving, we should stay and do better.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"It wasn't going to succeed no matter how long we stayed." That is a convenient ex post facto justification that washes our hands of responsibility by acting as if we had no real agency in the situation. We are making a choice to stop trying. Don't pretend that was inevitable.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"US casualties were low because of the 2020 deal. If we reneged on the deal, the Taliban would start attacking us again." US KIA have been low since 2014, averaging 1 per month for the last 6-7 years. I mourn for the individual soldiers, but I also have historical perspective
- Being moderate is hard cause we can't rely on slogans. Left: Take down all statues! Right: Keep them all! Me: "Take down some but not all statues according to an orderly, democratic, and legal process!" It's just not catchy.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2In terms of time, attention, and energy, Afg. isn't a distraction from GPC, it is GPC. We lose and leave, Russia and China gain influence across South/Central Asia. We stay, we keep a platform of access to the whole region.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"We won, bin Laden is dead and AQ is a shell. Whatever else we're doing isn't worth it. Why stay?" Because they or their copycats will come back. Witness ISIS after the Iraq withdrawal, or the Taliban today. Jihadists are still out there and very much want to kill us.
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"We had no strategy and we got sucked into nation building which wasn't the original mission." This is another way of saying that you didn't follow the war very closely and do not understand what is going on. thedispatch.com/p/what-really-…
- Replying to @PaulDMiller2"What's your plan then? We tried for 20 years. You have a better idea?" Yes. thedispatch.com/p/the-20-years… providencemag.com/2018/12/the-pr… newrepublic.com/article/120425… foreignaffairs.com/articles/afgha…
