Pinned
Countries that are covered by @Nowcast_EU projection models (24/11/2025)
🟩 - We try to update at least once or twice a month
🟧 - Timing of updates is subject to polling frequency
New additions: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇪 Estonia
Nowcast EU 🗳️
630 posts
Nowcast EU 🗳️
@Nowcast_EU
- 🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election polling averages — October 21, 2025 ➡️ AfD: 26.5% (+5.7) ⬛ Union: 24.7% (-3.9) 🟥 SPD: 13.0% (-3.4) 🟩 GRN: 12.0% (+0.4) 🟪 Linke: 11.9% (+3.1) — 🟫 BSW: 4.1% (-0.9) 🟨 FDP: 3.2% (-1.1) +/- vs. Feb 2025 Projection at the constituency level 👇
- 🇭🇺 Hungary | Legislative Election nowcast — 14/09/2025 🟥 TISZA: 49% / 137 (NEW) 🟧 FIDESZ: 37% / 62 (-73) ——— threshold ——— 🟩 MHM: 5% / 0 (-6) 🟦 DK: 4% / 0 (-15) 🔲 MKKP: 3% / 0 (=) 🟫 MSZP: 1% / 0 (-10) +/- vs. 2022
- 🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election polling averages — November 5, 2025 ⬛ FPÖ: 37.2% (+8.3) 🟦 ÖVP: 21.0% (-5.3) 🟥 SPÖ: 17.0% (-4.1) 🟩 GRN: 10.9% (+2.7) 🟪 NEOS: 8.2% (-0.9) — 🟫 KPÖ: 3.4% (+1.0) +/- vs. 2024 Projection at the district level 👇 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Austria/
- 🇨🇵 France | Legislative Election nowcast — 13/10/2025 Our experimental seat projection: ⬛ RN: 34% | 250 - 270 🟥 FP: 24% | 150 - 170 🟨 EN: 15% | 50 - 70 ➡️ LR: 13% | 50 - 70 — 🟪 DvG: 4% / 5 - 15 🟦 DvD: 3% / 10 - 20 🟧 DvC: 2% / 0 - 10
- 🇭🇺 Hungary | Legislative Election nowcast — 14/10/2025 🟥 TISZA: 47% | 132 (NEW) 🟧 FIDESZ: 36% | 60 (-77) 🟩 MHM: 7% | 7 (+1) ——— threshold ——— 🟦 DK: 4% | 0 (-15) 🔲 MKKP: 4% | 0 (=) +/- vs. 2022
- 🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election nowcast update — October 19, 2025 🟧 KO: 32% | 176 (+19) 🟦 PiS: 30% | 180 (-14) ⬛ Kon: 15% | 74 (+58) 🟥 Lew: 7% | 19 (=) 🟫 KKP: 6% | 11 (+9) ——— threshold ——— 🟪 Raz: 4% | 0 (-7) 🟩 PSL: 3% | 0 (-28) 🟨 PL50: 2% | 0 (-33) +/- vs. 2023
- 🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election Nowcast update — October 25, 2025 ⬛ FdI: 30% | 115 (-4) 🟥 PD: 22% | 96 (+27) 🟨 M5S: 13% | 57 (+5) 🟩 Lega: 9% | 45 (-21) 🟦 Forza: 8% | 36 (-9) 🟪 AVS: 7% | 29 (+17) ... 🟦 CDX: 48% | 199 (-38) 🟥 CSX: 46% | 189 (+105) +/- vs. 2022
- 🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election nowcast — 20/09/2025 Largest party at the Powiat level (projection) 🟠 37 flips from PiS to KO
- 🇸🇪 | Our projected result at the constituency level — by political bloc 🟥 Left: 53% | 199 (+26) 🟦 Right: 46% | 150 (-26) +/- vs. 2022
🇸🇪 Sweden | Legislative Election nowcast — 27/09/2025 🟥 S: 35% | 132 (+25) 🟨 SD: 22% | 83 (+10) ➡️ M: 18% | 67 (-1) 🟪 V: 7% | 26 (+2) 🟩 MP: 6% | 22 (+4) 🔲 C: 5% | 19 (-5) ——— threshold ——— ⬛ KD: 3% | 0 (-19) 🟦 L: 2% | 0 (-16) +/- vs. 2022 - 🇮🇹 Italy | (*amended) Legislative Election nowcast — 25/09/2025 ⬛ FdI: 30% | 108 (-11) 🟥 PD: 22% | 102 (+33) 🟨 M5S: 13% | 62 (+10)* 🟩 Lega: 9% | 47 (-19) 🟦 Forza: 8% | 39 (-6) 🟪 AVS: 7% | 29 (+17) ... 🟦 CDX: 47% | 197 (-40) 🟥 CSX: 46% | 200 (+116)* +/- vs. 2022
- 🇹🇷 Turkey | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 1, 2025 🟥 CHP: 32% | 246 (+77) 🟧 AKP: 31% | 252 (-16) 🟪 DEM: 9% | 62 (+1) 🟫 MHP: 8% | 38 (-12) 🟥 TIP: 1% | 2 (-2) ——— threshold ——— ℹ️ IYI: 6% | 0 (-43) ⬛ ZP: 4% | 0 (=) 🔲 YR: 3% | 0 (-5) +/- vs. 2023
- 🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election polling averages — 07/10/2025 ⬛ FPÖ: 35.7% (+6.8) 🟦 ÖVP: 21.3% (-5.0) 🟥 SPÖ: 18.2% (-2.9) 🟩 Grüne: 11.0% (+2.8) 🟪 NEOS: 8.8% (-0.3) ——— threshold ——— 🟫 KPÖ: 3.0% (+0.6) +/- vs. 2024 District-level projection 👇
- 🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election nowcast — 06/10/2025 ➡️ AfD: 27% | 192 (+40) ⬛ Union: 25% | 176 (-32) 🟥 SPD: 14% | 97 (-23) 🟩 GRN: 12% | 85 (=) 🟪 Linke: 11% | 79 (+15) ——— threshold ——— 🟫 BSW: 4% | 0 (=) 🟨 FDP: 3% | 0 (=) +/- vs. Feb 2025
