Milk Road Macro (@MilkRoadMacro) / X

Milk Road Macro

8,136 posts

Milk Road Macro

@MilkRoadMacro

Helping you get smarter about macro investing. Subscribe for free to learn how global markets move Bitcoin, stocks, gold and more. By @MilkRoad

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link.milkroad.com/macro

Joined June 2023

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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Jun 10
INFLATION CONTINUES TO CLIMB IN 2026 Inflation came in exactly as expected today at 4.2% but that's not the good news it sounds like. This marks the highest inflation reading since May 2023. Inflation had spent nearly three years below 4% but it has now broken back above that
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Jun 10
BREAKING: May CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023. Core CPI inflation also rises to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025. Inflation in the US is officially back above 4% and more than double the Fed's target. Odds of Fed rate hikes are rising.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Sep 29, 2025
Hot take: $BTC is now following a 5 year cycle. As the ISM is still stuck below 50... We think that the current bull cycle will top around Q1-Q2 2026.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Nov 7, 2025
The most important macro concept right now is the TGA. TGA = Treasury General Account = the U.S. government’s “bank account” at the Fed. The plan was initially to refill it to $850B… But due to the government shutdown, it’s now well above that target level. More funds in the
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Nov 6, 2025
The ISM data is lagging. At Milk Road, we use the Global Economy Index (GEI) to track the business cycle. Here's what it's saying: We’ve already completed a mini business cycle and just entered a brand new one. The main reason why the mini cycle ended were the tariff
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Oct 23, 2025
Replying to @Geiger_Capital
The last $1T rise happened in just 70 days.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Sep 29, 2025
We should’ve credited the original source in our earlier post, and we want to correct that. The framework & chart come from @RealVision , @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien This space moves fast, and it’s frustrating when charts get swiped. BUT we also believe this framework is right,
Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Sep 29, 2025
Hot take: $BTC is now following a 5 year cycle. As the ISM is still stuck below 50... We think that the current bull cycle will top around Q1-Q2 2026.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Oct 25, 2025
Here's a quick explainer on QE & QT: Quantitative Easing (QE) = Fed expanding their balance sheet by bonding bonds = injecting cash into the system QT is the exact opposite. Quantitative Tightening (QT) = selling bonds = taking cash out of the system. Between 2019 and 2022,
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Oct 23, 2025
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Sep 8, 2025
This cycle still has a long way to go. Right now, 90% of central banks are cutting rates. Historically, this leads US sentiment by about 9 months... Which means US sentiment should turn up soon, giving the cycle even more fuel. Hope your bags are ready. h/t @BittelJulien
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Nov 12, 2025
Everyone’s talking about QE coming back… But few are telling you what’s actually happening. Here’s the hard truth: The Fed will likely start a “light” version of QE in Q1 2026 and the key word here is light. Analysts expect balance sheet expansion of around $20B per month or
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Oct 7, 2025
This correlation is almost spooky. The Russell 2000 (small cap equities) and $ETH are basically moving in sync. Both are highly sensitive to interest rates. With 4+ consecutive cuts on the horizon... Expect both of them to move up in tandem.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Oct 5, 2025
The Fed is cutting rates while inflation and growth are both rising. That’s running the economy hot. We’ve only seen this a few times before. The last big one? 1998. The Fed eased even though markets were strong, and it extended the bull run for two more years into the 2000
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Aug 30, 2025
The M2 Money Supply chart makes one thing clear: We’re in the later stages of the cycle. The upswing that started in late 2022 is still intact… But it’s looking like the tail end of this run.
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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Aug 8, 2025
The Fed isn’t easing. But the Treasury is. Bessent just confirmed the U.S. will keep funding deficits with short term bills not long term bonds. That floods markets with pristine collateral and boosts liquidity. It’s stealth QE and it’s ramping up again. To break it down:
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