The Deal That Can't Be Made?
Discrepancies are starting to show.
A final US-Iran deal looks very unlikely, no matter what Trump says as two sticky points remain:
• The Strait of Hormuz
--> Iran wants to collect fees on traffic flows.
--> The US is pressuring for the opposite.
• Nuclear uranium
--> Iran says uranium won't leave the country, calling it their sovereign right.
--> The US says it must be removed and destroyed.
These are not minor disagreements.
They are the foundations of any final agreement.
And right now...
Neither side looks willing to budge.
What is being discussed for now is only a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
Under the MoU:
• 60-day truce
• Strait of Hormuz reopens
• US naval blockade lifted
• Traffic flows resume
• Mines cleared
But even this is hanging by a thread.
Iran is insisting that frozen funds be released and sanctions relief begin immediately, while the U.S. says any relief must be tied to Iran’s performance under the deal, which is one reason the MoU remains unresolved.
And here's where it gets messy:
Trump and Pakistan are signaling an imminent Sunday signing, but Iran has rejected that timeline, saying no final deal has been approved yet.
The market is trapped between:
🟢 Optimism about an MoU and the reopening of the Strait.
🔴 Reality that Iran keeps denying progress and that the core issues are unlikely to be resolved.
That's why oil remains stuck in a range,hovering around $81,with no clear guidance on the next major move.
If the MoU is actually confirmed and signed, we could see oil extend lower, testing better buy zones...
..before the real fight begins again.
Because the sticky points?
They aren't going away.
And neither is the risk of escalation.
