@WHO Collaborating Centre for infectious disease modelling. Follow us for health analytics, vaccines, genomics & preparedness. Also on @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social
UPDATE: #Coronavirus
➡more intensive interventions now needed in UK to slow down #COVID19 spread, reduce pressure on healthcare & protect those most at risk
➡️careful monitoring required when interventions relaxed
🔰Full report: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
UPDATE: Report estimates 4000 cases #coronavirus#2019nCoV
Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size.
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Your questions on #CoronaVirus#2019nCoV answered:
@neil_ferguson on estimates, scale of the epidemic, forward projections, the role of modelling in outbreak response, informing governments, interventions, control measures & more
Watch the full video: 🔰youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw
UPDATE: #COVID19 sensitivity of international surveillance
➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected.
🔰Read the full report: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
UPDATE #COVID19 new variant VOC202012/01 in England
➡️VOC growing rapidly
➡️Transmission advantage for VOC of 0.4 to 0.7 difference in reproduction number compared to non-VOC variant
➡️VOC affecting a greater proportion of under 20s
👉Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
UPDATE: #coronavirus#2019nCoV Severity
➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
The Mail on Sunday has apologised and removed the online version of an article headlined ‘Will the Covid doom-mongers NEVER admit they’re wrong?’, which contained a number of inaccurate and misleading claims about Imperial research
UPDATE: #COVID19 Phylogenetics
➡️Genetic diversity of COVID-19 is consistent with exponential growth, doubling time seven days
➡️Start epidemic estimated early December 2019
Read the full report:
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries)
➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March
➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic
➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
New peer-reviewed publication in @ScienceTM on the #Covid19 epidemic in the UK last year.
▶️23,000 lives could have been saved in first wave if lockdown introduced 1 week earlier
Read more: stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
For every 2 adults who die due to #COVID19, 1 child is left without a family-caregiver.
A global study in @TheLancet uncovers the impact of this hidden #pandemic – more than 1.5M children worldwide growing up without family-caregivers.