Lessons from failure.
In 2000, when young & stupid, I overexposed to tech.
08: I contrarian traded Citi. Lost money. Safer bet was a short.
2018, blindsided by a savage BTD recovery.
2020, I raised too much cash.
Each cycle has its own nuances beware of your biases.
Darren Sissons
27K posts
Global Equities, Options, Emerging Mkts. Kiwi: All Blacks๐ Retweets โ endorsement substack.com/@darrensissons [email protected], ๐ณ๐ฟ ๐จ๐ฆ๐น๐ผ
- Semi Thread for October 2022. ๐งต Focus: 1) Not on specific names, but rather industry dynamics now versus the past. 2) Front vs back-end. 3) Sector Spend. 4) Recent Events of interest. @kittysquiddy /1
- In 2008 I added 2 eBay searches. Ran continuously since as a coincidental & or lagging indicator of middle-income US consumers. Searches: Used high end suits & high end vintage watches. Update: Clothing items listed for sale up 10x. Watches by 12x. ๐ @INArteCarloDoss
- An obvious counter is China is now in the middle income trap & its international aspirations have driven oppositional soft & hard barriers. The first $12K per capita income was easy. Absent a high growth economy & supportive tech transfer the next $12K much more difficult. 1/
- A side effect of inflation no one is noting is the blow out in working capital. The perfect storm is an accelerating topline & margin compression. Working capital expansion then funded by larger revolvers. No issue for quality franchises but an issue for leveraged Me-Toos
- Replying to @BradHuston and @thehillOr payback for an unjustified intergenerational rip off. After all, how many of the elderly actually paid for their education.
- Busy so getting to this now. My view FWIW is Hedgeye is low grade garbage. This just cements that view.
- Monthly semiconductor market thread ๐งตwith news along with key semi & semicap market insight for December. By @KiwiPMI & @EponymouslyAnon Read thread in conjunction with: Semi Thread 1 ๐งต: x.com/KiwiPMI/statusโฆ Semi Thread 2 ๐งต: x.com/KiwiPMI/statusโฆ @kittysquiddy /1Monthly summary of market news along with key semi & semicap market insight for November. By @KiwiPMI & @EponymouslyAnon
- Replying to @INArteCarloDossGood thread! You can argue the de- leveraging strategy is thought leadership. Real estate sucks so much oxygen it's crowding out productive industries in most countries. Policy is fixated on marginal RE gains but most economies better served growing industrial capability.
- Next week is going to be a gong show with all the monthly option expiries. Market makers have blown out TVM but decay will be brutal. Reminder: Options are a binary outcome i.e., you win or you lose no in between.
- Replying to @PauloMacro100%! The bifurcation of tertiary education has grown the econ divide. Gone are the days tertiary education enabled a leap btw economic classes. Now it's largely a process of extracting capital from the middle class & maintaining status quo. Biden just enhanced that divide.
- Mini ๐งต Discussions on China's economic progression, post U.S. sanctions are increasingly polarized. One camp viewing advances in technology, patent filings and so forth ensure continued technological advancement and wealth increases. The opposing camp cites medium term /1
- Interesting thread from @WifeyAlpha I personally find the immediately attached link one of the most honest market facing comments in a while. It's easy to have an opinion. Ofc you can be wrong but trust your systems & be systematic, which is better than trading on instinct.
- Introductory discussion on Fund Economics ๐งต Thoughts presented in the context of a typical largish fund franchise. Contributors: @blader @capatli @DrastikThomas @echodot126 @morizmartiner @Rob_Slh @SigeVinken @Will_DeCotiis @KiwiPMI CC @INArteCarloDoss /1


