Pinned
Thanks to the kind people at @FUSIONaier, I have a new quick piece exploring potential regime change trajectories in Venezuela. The words you are probably looking for are "Pacted Transition."
Julian Waller ๐
18K posts
Julian Waller ๐
@JulianWaller
Ph.D, Political Science. Researcher & Adj-Prof: Authoritarianism; Illiberalism; Pol-Mil; Russia/Eurasia. Opinions own. BOOK: tinyurl.com/autocratscant
- The eccentric lord mayor of New Amsterdam potentially being an Ottoman asset is a really fun plot twist, you have to admit.
- I asked the Bing AI image generator to make 'democracy vs authoritarianism' and I think it got confused...
- Waittt no one told me Bukele is dressing like a sci-fi aristocrat now. Strong 'holding the baronetcy of a minor feudal planet for the Imperium' vibes.
In El Salvador for the inauguration of President Nayib Bukele. He defeated his principal opponent, Manuel Flores, in Februaryโs presidential election. To the best of my knowledge, Bukele made no attempt to imprison Flores. - A few thoughts on the Tucker-Putin interview: Having watched the interview last night, I've been very interested in seeing the reaction here on this site. A lot of people have focused on 'Putin as an autistic history nerd' (good memes here), while others have stuck to variationsEp. 73 The Vladimir Putin Interview
00:00 - The Romania situation is unorecedented. If *everything* in this report is *entirely true* it still amounts to canceling an election b/c of social media. Not ballot falsification. Not voting irregularities. But a messaging campaign on TikTok whose actual reach is not measured.NEW: Likely Kremlin-Backed Election Interference Against Romania Threatens Bucharest's Continued Support for Ukraine and NATO Special Report + Key Takeawaysโฌ๏ธ๐งต(1/9)
- Ok. So I study authoritarian regimes for a living. I spend most of my time thinking about how Russia's dictatorship works. But one of my personal side-projects involves looking at authoritarian theorists closer to home. The most prominent by far is Curtis Yarvin.
- The idea that the US today is somehow "less democratic" than when only property-holding white males could vote or when half the country had seceded is embarrassing. Immediately puts the scholarship of anyone sharing this under question for academic fraud/ cognitive impairment.
- Let me expand on this a bit more, because what you may not grasp is how much of a normie move this is for Bukele. Boring even for our favorite based, tech-inflected quasi Caesarist.BREAKING: El Salvador approves indefinite presidential reelection and extends presidential terms to six years. apnews.com/article/el-salโฆ
- One of my favorite recent papers in historical political science is Gray & Smith (2023). It uses the Roman Empire as a case of a long-running autocracy without stable hereditary succession and with quasi-republican institutions to show that the monarchical succession principle is
- Every now and then there's a popular thread about how the RU economy is collapsing. And everyone forgets we did this 3 months ago. And 6 before that. For almost 3 years. The underlying points are the same (high inflation! tight labor market! 'supercharged' economy!)...
- My only serious comment tonight is that the democracy and "fascism" talk was extraordinarily irresponsible, unbelievably insulting to normal citizens, and you should absolutely and for all time heavily discount the scholars that engaged in this at an industrial level.
- Replying to @JulianWallerOh and yes this guy is completely right. You're already late to the party if you're just seeing this for the first time! The world is far more Interesting than you think.The primary functions of the NYT are to define elite consensus and signal when well-established realities can be publicly acknowledged. This harms readers who use the NYT as an actual news source and are often informed years after the fact (if at all).
- Just discovered a peer-reviewed paper arguing that because the US is "experiencing democratic backsliding," Canada should be looking to...wait for it... CHINA... for more reliable democracy-based multilateralism and trade opportunities. I actually laughed out loud. ๐
