November 1st (2nd) Prediction.
My last prediction, I don't have much changing from October, I just don't see Dems doing well this election.
If I'm wrong you can make fun of this post but this is what I genuinely believe the election is at.
Stop saying Democrats have a guaranteed 2026 blue wave.
This election has shown that there is something deeply wrong within the Democratic Party, and if nothing changes from here, then I don't see any reason why 2026 will be any different from 2024.
I made a nationwide map of all districts having the same population as the smallest populated U.S. territory (47.3k) making 7,080 districts total including U.S. territories. If you want me to zoom in on a specific state or region put it in the replies.
When fair districts are drawn the US House should have an approximate partisan breakdown of:
🟦295 Democrats
- 210 SAFE DEM
- 53 LIKELY DEM
- 24 LEAN DEM
- 8 TILT DEM
🟥140 Republicans
- 132 SAFE GOP
- 0 LIKELY GOP
- 6 LEAN GOP
- 2 TILT GOP
When fair districts are drawn the US House should have an approximate partisan breakdown of:
🟥 299 Republicans
- 116 SAFE GOP
- 148 LIKELY GOP
- 30 LEAN GOP
- 5 TILT GOP
🟦 136 Democrats
- 117 SAFE DEM
- 15 LIKELY DEM
- 3 LEAN DEM
- 1 TILT DEM
Large metro areas below
The Democrats have a shot to win EVERY seat up in 2026 *if* they get their top recruits. This could very well happen.
ME - Mills
WV - Manchin
KY - Beshear
OH - Brown
IA - Sand
KS - Kelly
NE - Pansing Brooks
SD - Herseth Sandlin
WY - Cheney
MT - Tester
ID - Minnick
AK - Peltola
The GOP has a shot to win EVERY seat up in 2026 *if* they get their top recruits. This could very well happen.
GA - Kemp
MI - Rogers
NH - Brown
MN - Coleman
VA - Youngkin
NM - Martinez
IL - Kirk
OR - Smith
CO - Gardner
DE - Castle
NJ - Ciattarelii
MA - Baker
RI - Fung