What if GSR was right....
#ETH $7,500/$10,000 March'25 call spreads traded overnight. Lotto up & lock in.
Jake O
2,258 posts
Jake O
@JO_wintermute
Head of OTC @wintermute_t | Ex-Macro now Crypto, Vol & Derivatives. Keynesian beauty contest participant & amateur Crossfit athlete. Views are my own
Joined August 2022
- Unpopular opinion: Dino's rally is probably more about redemptions and long/short book unwinding than genuine conviction about France's future
- Yesterday's #ETH move represented a 97th percentile reading over the past 4 years. Volatility tends to cluster, so expect a continuation of high realised which has clear implications for risk management & drawdowns.
- Given a lack of large ETFs, the DAT narrative in SOL has the potential to be a key driver into year-end. Converting FTX's vesting "overhang" into staked, treasury-held assets reduces the effective circulating supply. Meanwhile, limited alternative exposure options could drive
- "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does at the end" -- Warren Buffett
- Watch for news failures -- when the market stops going down on escalating tariff news, the narrative can shift.BREAKING: President Trump announces ADDITIONAL 25% tariffs on Steel and Aluminum coming to the US from Canada. This brings tariffs on these goods up to a new high of 50%.
- Markets rarely crash when protection is already in place. 30/60/90-day skew has pushed aggressively into put premium following c.30% drop, making topside the path of least resistance. There’s plenty of room for an upside squeeze if/when funds start chasing the right tail -- so
- YOU ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE MOST ABUNDANT, PROSPEROUS, OPPORTUNITY FILLED PHASE OF YOUR LIFE.
- With participation + volumes rising, we're seeing greater dispersion as traders hunt for the next big move. Correlation among the top 100 assets has dropped to its lowest level in a year, and I expect this to show up in pockets of out-performance.
- Crypto can no longer be traded in isolation & we're currently in a macro-driven regime. This trend has been a recurring, though not constant, theme throughout the cycle, especially when the VIX > 20. In these environments, extra attention should be paid to U.S. economic data
