I'm so disgusted with rejection letters, invitation cancellations, grant withdrawals etc. against Russian scholars from Western academics who fight Putinism by attacking those who have suffered from it for decades.
15-year sentence for “discrediting the war effort” was introduced in Russia today. Most remaining independent media were blocked and closed offices overnight. Looks like my Twitter career was impressive but short-lived…
Mikhail Khodorenok, a retired colonel with the Russian general staff currently working as an analyst, writing *three weeks before the war*:
1. No one in Ukraine will happily greet Russian troops in case of the invasion. [An obvious one, but okay]
nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2022-02-03…
Rare glimpses of honesty from senior Russian officials. (Another 🧵 on sanctions.)
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken. (1/11)
I have collected some thoughts on the immediate impact of sanctions on the Russian economy (a long 🧵). TL; DR: 30 years of economic development thrown into the bin. (1/16)
So, this is 7 out of 7 for Khodorenok. I'm not a military expert, but most of these points are basic common sense. If only the Kremlin could maintain a minimal connection with reality...
German DAAD stipends for Russian students were first cancelled, then restored. Thank you, Germany. I am against the war, but I refuse to accept that, as a Russian, I have no right to exist in this world.
So encouraging to come home after being chased by riot police and discover that you were excluded from some space/platform b.c. 'you've done too little'. Who are you to judge? You've never risked anything in your life and this costs you nothing.
4. The Ukrainian forces have undergone massive reforms since 2014 and are very capable. The West will supply them with weapons on the scale of a new land-lease program.
3. The war will not end quickly because of Russia's air supremacy. Russia lost in Afghanistan and Chechnya despite them having zero planes. And Ukraine does have an air force and air defense.
6. Even if significant territories are occupied, the guerrilla resistance will be fierce. The Soviet forces have been fighting nationalist guerrillas in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years after the end of the second world war.